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SM
SM Energy CompanyNYSEEnergyOil & Gas E&pSnapshot 2026-06-12
Watch· this month
$31.15-0.42%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is weak, and risk is elevated, while earnings quality is robust. Management's recent track record has been neutral, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 15% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. If sector bellwethers like COP, EOG, and OXY keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Energy sector momentum should keep lifting SM and other Energy names. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Energy
- Industry
- Oil & Gas E&p
- Market cap
- $7.45B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1996-07-05
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-30
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $31.15. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryinexpensive
$59.93consensus
Range $36.80 – $64.63
vs price: -48% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$113.81consensus
Range $79.36 – $171.69
vs price: -73% below
Method agreement — · 4 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peersmedium confidence
At $31 SM trades at 6× p/e, below its 13× p/e peer median. Our $37 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Analysts: $24–$55. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
6.0x
peer 12.6x · own history 6.3x
Premium
0.5x peer
1.0x its own history
Growth the price needs
-15%
our forecast 8%
Our fair value
$36.80
range $35.54 – $64.63
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is in the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
inexpensivefair — but weakening12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 15% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 8%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
weakOperating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Energy names rated weak grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=979).
30th pctl · Energy
Earnings quality
robustOver the trailing year it converted 16.55x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Energy names rated robust grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 35% for the rest of the cohort, n=602).
98th pctl · Energy
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the US dollar and the broad stock market.
- the US dollar: This stock tends to rise when the dollar strengthens.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
- long-term interest rates: This stock tends to rise when long-term rates rise.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
BullishEPS revised +6.6% / 30d, n=14for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $1.91 → $2.03 (+6.6% / 30d). 5 raised, 4 cut, 14 covering analysts.
Rating actions
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 57% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 26.1% above current price.
Material events
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: is in (~0.8 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- weak
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-12
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$219.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$501.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,814.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- label change · valuation_labelsmall change
Valuation label changed from 'fair' to 'inexpensive'.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceWeeksactive 14d
Watch for Q2 earnings results on July 30
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company can recover from the recent earnings miss.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:The Q2 earnings report shows profits that are higher than what analysts expected. This suggests recovery.
Disproves:The Q2 earnings report shows another miss. This confirms ongoing financial struggles.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SM yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for changes in oil prices following CPI and PPI reports
- Watch for energy revenue growth to pick up above 8% YoY
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like COP, EOG, and OXY keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Energy sector momentum should keep lifting SM and other Energy names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If inflation reaccelerates, say headline CPI back above 3.5% (currently 2.8%), that would benefit SM and other Energy names (the sector typically holds up well in inflationary environments).
- If SM beats again next quarter like it did this past one (a big beat of +37% on the 2026-03-31 print), the momentum tends to extend, with Street estimates ratcheting up and the stock typically following.
Downside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like COP, EOG, and OXY start missing or guiding lower, the Energy tailwind helping SM and other Energy names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits SM and other Energy names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-0112d agoItem 1.02
Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement. On June 1, 2026, SM Energy Company (“ Company ”) paid $419,235,000 to redeem all of the aggregate principal amount outstanding of its 6.75% Senior Notes due 2026 (the “ 2026 Senior Notes ”), plus accrued and unpaid interest, pursuant to the terms of the Indenture, dated as of May 21, 2015 (the “ Base Indenture ”), by and between the Company and U.S. Bank National Association, (including its successor in interest, U.S. Bank Trust Company, Nationa…
M&A activitynegative
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+6.2 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.