Reading SIGI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SIGI free→Reading SIGI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SIGI free→NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, and risk is moderate. The sector backdrop is a headwind, which may affect performance compared to sector peers, where SIGI is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 4% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, quality intact. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $92.41. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $92 SIGI trades at 13× p/e, in line with its 11× p/e peer median. Our $96 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 4% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 11%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated strong grew net income 67% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3733).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.58x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated robust grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.64 → $1.68 (+2.3% / 30d). 3 raised, 3 cut, 7 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 38% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 2.5% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$102.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$227.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,818.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is key for Selective Insurance. A drop below 12% signals a slowdown.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported below 12% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth remains at or above 12% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SIGI yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Chief Investment Officer — Joseph O. Eppers: Mr. Eppers is retiring and pursuing other career opportunities.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Property & Casualty Insurance.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
SIGI Selective Insurance Group | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 48 of 100 | fair | moderate |
CB Chubb Limited | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 69 of 100 | full | moderate |
PGR Progressive Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 76 of 100 | fair | moderate |
TRV Travelers Companies (The) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 87 of 100 | fair | low |
ALL Allstate | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Financials names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on driving revenue growth through strategic initiatives.
Continue efforts to improve operating income through cost management and efficiency.
Aim to increase net income through strategic initiatives and cost management.
Why it matters: Strong net income growth shows good management. It also means more profit.
Confirms:Q2 net income available to common stockholders grows more than 10% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 net income growth is less than or equal to 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can affect the company. Updates will explain future goals.
Confirms one read:Announcement of a clear strategic plan from the new president.
Confirms the other:No clear strategy or direction provided by the new president.
Why it matters: Operating income growth shows good cost control. Staying above 15% shows strong efficiency.
Confirms:Operating income growth was above 15% compared to last year.
Disproves:Operating income growth was below 15% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Slower premium growth may show less demand. This can hurt revenue.
Confirms:Net premiums written growth drops below 3% year over year.
Disproves:Net premiums written growth stays above 3% year over year.
Why it matters: Higher reinsurance costs can hurt profit and stability.
Confirms:Reinsurance costs are going up a lot in the next quarters.
Disproves:Reinsurance costs stay the same or go down in the next quarters.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 22, 2026, Selective Insurance Group, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. The press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. Section 7 – Regulation FD