Reading SFIX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SFIX free→Reading SFIX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SFIX free→NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel RetailSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality cannot be assessed as the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has improved, rising significantly, but risk remains high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair, but weakening. The valuation reflects that it is priced roughly in line with peers, but recent financials or earnings quality are weakening. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $3.85. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $3.85 SFIX trades at 0× p/s, in line with its 0× p/s peer median. Our $3.85 fair value reflects that, medium confidence. Analysts: $4.00–$5.00. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 0% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about -1%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted -1.94x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Not enough signal yet.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.05 → $-0.05 (-3.4% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 33% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 31.2% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$248.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$648.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,751.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Company momentum fell by 24.8 points (from 75.9 to 51.1).
Management rose by 12.7 points (from 30.4 to 43.1).
Valuation label changed from 'full' to 'fair'.
Management rose. The valuation label changed to fair from full.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
No named catalysts to watch right now. Check back after the next earnings report.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SFIX yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On June 10, 2026, Stitch Fix, Inc. (the “Company”) announced its financial results for the third quarter of fiscal 2026, ended May 2, 2026. In the press release, the Company also announced that it would be holding a conference call on June 10, 2026, at 2:00 p.m Pacific Time to discuss its financial results for the third quarter of fiscal 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K (this “Curre…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
$4.00 – $5.00 (median $4.50) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-06-11
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Apparel Retail.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
SFIX Stitch Fix, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 75 of 100 | fair | high |
TJX TJX Companies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
ROST Ross Stores | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
BURL Burlington Stores | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 98 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
GAP Gap Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 96 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on achieving positive adjusted EBITDA through operational improvements.
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. The Company expects Q4 2026 Adjusted EBITDA between $7 million and $10 million, indicating a focus on achieving positive adjusted EBITDA. Despite recurring emphasis, the financials show limited progress with net income remaining negative at -$1.5 million in 2026-Q3.
“The Company expects Q4 2026 Adjusted EBITDA $7 million - $10 million.”
“Fiscal Year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA $42 million - $50 million.”
“Fiscal Year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA $38 million - $48 million.”
“Fiscal Year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA $30 million - $45 million.”
Aim to maintain gross margin within the 43% to 44% range for fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. The Company maintains its guidance for fiscal year 2026 gross margin between 43% and 44%. However, the actual gross profit in 2026-Q3 was $148.8 million, showing mixed results in achieving the target range.
“The Company expects full fiscal year 2026 gross margin to be between 43% and 44%.”
Provide revenue guidance for fiscal year 2026 to ensure transparency and set expectations.
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. The Company has consistently provided revenue guidance for fiscal year 2026, with the latest range being $1.346 billion to $1.351 billion. However, actual revenue in 2026-Q3 was $340.3 million, indicating limited progress towards the annual target.
“Fiscal Year 2026 Net Revenue $1.346 billion - $1.351 billion.”
“The Company expects full fiscal year 2026 gross margin to be between 43% and 44%.”
“The Company expects full fiscal year 2026 gross margin to be between 43% and 44%.”
“Fiscal Year 2026 Net Revenue $1.330 billion - $1.350 billion.”
“Fiscal Year 2026 Net Revenue $1.32 billion - $1.35 billion.”
“Fiscal Year 2026 Net Revenue $1.28 billion - $1.33 billion.”