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SEZL
SezzleNASDAQFinancialsCredit ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-12
Intact
$132.70+3.00%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, while the sector backdrop is a headwind, contributing to elevated risk. Peer multiples imply a price about 99% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified, as it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends from major players like V, MA, and AXP. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Financials
- Industry
- Credit Services
- Market cap
- $4.07B
- Employees
- 201
- IPO date
- 2021-08-16
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-06
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $132.70. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$63.80consensus
Range $51.58 – $85.84
vs price: +108% above
Method agreement — · 6 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$177.41consensus
Range $118.42 – $295.28
vs price: -25% below
Method agreement — · 4 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Re-ratinglow confidence
At $133 SEZL trades at 33× p/e — 2.6× the 13× p/e peer median, and above its own 22× history. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $65 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $76–$94. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
32.8x
peer 12.6x · own history 22.3x
Premium
2.6x peer
1.5x its own history
Growth the price needs
104%
our forecast 31%
Our fair value
$64.91
range $51.75 – $86.35
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiveexpensive — growth-justified12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 104% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 31%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Elevated fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated strong grew net income 67% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3733).
94th pctl · Financials
Earnings quality
robustOver the trailing year it converted 1.66x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated robust grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
71st pctl · Financials
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Management & capital allocation
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Neutral5 analysts, 83% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.97 → $1.00 (+2.9% / 30d). 1 raised, 1 cut, 5 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 83% of analysts rate Buy.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: financials is in growth, with decelerating (~3.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: Growth by revenue growth · theme capital-markets/rates.headwind
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- weak
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- strong
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$325.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$793.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $7,202.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
highas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 14d
Watch for Q2 revenue growth to exceed 30% YoY
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth confirms management's focus on increasing sales. It can boost investor confidence.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported above 30% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth reported below 20% year over year.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SEZL yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth dropping below 10% across major banks
- Watch for changes in FOMC interest rate policy on June 17
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like V, MA, and AXP keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Financials sector momentum should keep lifting SEZL and other Financials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If SEZL raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-13), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If SEZL cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-13), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would weigh on SEZL and other Financials names, since the sector usually outperforms when rates stay high.
- If sector bellwethers like V, MA, and AXP start missing or guiding lower, the Financials tailwind helping SEZL and other Financials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-121mo agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement Revolving Credit and Security Agreement On May 7, 2026, Sezzle Funding SPE II, LLC (the “Borrower”), a wholly owned indirect subsidiary of Sezzle Inc. (“Sezzle” or the “Company”), Bastion Funding VI, LP, as administrative agent (the “Agent”), and certain lenders party thereto, executed the Amended and Restated Revolving Credit and Security Agreement (the “Credit Agreement”). Under the Credit Agreement, the Borrower entered into a senior, secured, ass…
Capital allocationpositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+5.9 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.