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SBUX
StarbucksNASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-06-12
Intact
$103.04+0.74%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong. Earnings quality is robust, cash backs up profits. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent changes. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and risk is moderate. Peer multiples imply a price about 135% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. This assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Consumer Discretionary
- Industry
- Restaurants
- Market cap
- $116.18B
- Employees
- 330,000
- IPO date
- 1996-05-15
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-28
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $103.04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$43.60consensus
Range $30.99 – $47.42
vs price: +136% above
Method agreement — · 8 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$176.71consensus
Range $41.82 – $287.28
vs price: -42% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Optionality premiumlow confidence
At $103, SBUX's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 75× p/e (3.6× the 21× p/e peer median, and 2.2× even its own history). At a normal multiple the price implies ~135% near-term growth vs our ~7% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $44 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Analysts: $95–$117. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
75.2x
peer 21.0x · own history 34.1x
Premium
3.6x peer
2.2x its own history
Growth the price needs
135%
our forecast 7%
Our fair value
$43.91
range $31.05 – $47.42
Analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiveexpensive — growth-justified12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 135% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 7%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated strong grew net income 70% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
83rd pctl · Consumer Discretionary
Earnings quality
robustOver the trailing year it converted 2.91x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated robust grew net income 65% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
78th pctl · Consumer Discretionary
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Bullish25 analysts, 46% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.64 → $0.65 (+0.3% / 30d). 9 raised, 4 cut, 25 covering analysts.
Rating actions
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 0 maintained. 46% of analysts rate Buy.
Material events
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Transition story with positive analyst positioning (often a turnaround setup).
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: consumer discretionary is in (~0.2 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- strong
Met or beat guidance 67% of the last 3 guided quarters · -10.8% avg surprise
as of 2026-06-12
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$100.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$259.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,852.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 18d
Watch for Q3 comparable store sales growth below 5%
Why it matters: This growth rate is a key measure of customer demand and operational success. A drop below 5% could signal trouble in the recovery plan.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q3 store sales growth was below 5%.
Disproves:Q3 comparable store sales growth reported at 5% or higher.
Earnings call
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-06-111d agoYahoo! Finance
Potential sale or IPO aligns with growth strategy.
ReinforcesUnconfirmed report
This sector is also watching
- Watch for consumer revenue growth dropping below median
- Watch for changes in unemployment claims on June 4
- Watch for retail sales data on June 17
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like MCD, YUM, and CMG keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Consumer Discretionary sector momentum should keep lifting SBUX and other Consumer Discretionary names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for SBUX and other Consumer Discretionary names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
Downside triggers
- If SBUX reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising (RAISED as of 2026-04-28), that's the worst kind of move: a credibility hit on top of the lower number. Stocks usually get punished disproportionately for this.
- If sector bellwethers like MCD, YUM, and CMG start missing or guiding lower, the Consumer Discretionary tailwind helping SBUX and other Consumer Discretionary names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits SBUX and other Consumer Discretionary names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-121d agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On June 11, 2026, Starbucks Corporation (the “Company”) designated Val Bauduin, 50, as the Company’s principal accounting officer. Mr. Bauduin continues to serve as senior vice president, Corporate Finance and Development, and continues to report to Cathy Smith, executive vice president, chief financial officer. Ms. Smith continues as the Company’s…
Executive changeneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-0.5 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.