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SBAC
SBA CommunicationsNASDAQReal EstateReit - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-06-12
Intact
$204.79+0.56%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may affect future performance. Compared with sector peers, SBAC trades above typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair), and the read is fair, but weakening, as recent financials or earnings quality are weakening. The read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Real Estate
- Industry
- Reit - Specialty
- Market cap
- $21.60B
- Employees
- 1,844
- IPO date
- 1998-09-25
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-03
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $204.79. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfull
$199.68consensus
Range $196.26 – $208.36
vs price: +3% above
Method agreement — · 5 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$216.19consensus
Range $198.09 – $241.22
vs price: -5% below
Method agreement — · 4 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearfair
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Aligned with peersmedium confidence
At $205 SBAC trades at 22× p/e, in line with its 18× p/e peer median. Our $200 fair value reflects that, medium confidence. Analysts: $225–$245. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
21.6x
peer 17.9x · own history 38.9x
Premium
1.2x peer
0.6x its own history
Growth the price needs
3%
our forecast 5%
Our fair value
$199.68
range $172.29 – $206.18
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fullfair — but weakening12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The market is pricing in roughly 3% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 5%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1968).
54th pctl · Real Estate
Earnings quality
fragileOver the trailing year it converted 1.22x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated fragile grew net income 35% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1399).
26th pctl · Real Estate
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to real (inflation-adjusted) rates and long-term interest rates.
- real (inflation-adjusted) rates: This stock behaves like a long-duration asset — tends to fall when real rates rise.
- long-term interest rates: This stock tends to fall when long-term rates rise.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, Fed net liquidity.
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullishEPS revised +7.6% / 30d, n=10for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $1.80 → $1.94 (+7.6% / 30d). 6 raised, 2 cut, 10 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 48% of analysts rate Buy.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: real estate is in maturing, with decelerating (~1.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: Mature by revenue growth · theme sunbelt-migration.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutralProvisional
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- strong
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-12
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$120.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$310.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,979.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- label change · valuation_labelsmall change
Valuation label changed from 'fair' to 'full'.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideHigh confidenceWeeksactive 7d
Watch for the impact of the earnings miss on investor sentiment
Why it matters: An earnings miss can lead to negative sentiment and affect stock performance.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Investor feelings improve after the earnings miss. The stock price recovers in 2 weeks.
Disproves:Investor sentiment worsens, leading to a stock price drop of more than 5% within 2 weeks.
Material event
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SBAC yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for impact of upcoming economic reports on Real Estate
- Watch for revenue growth across major REITs to re-accelerate
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for SBAC and other Real Estate names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like EQIX, AMT, and DLR keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Real Estate sector momentum should keep lifting SBAC and other Real Estate names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
Downside triggers
- If SBAC reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising (RAISED as of 2026-04-29), that's the worst kind of move: a credibility hit on top of the lower number. Stocks usually get punished disproportionately for this.
- If sector bellwethers like EQIX, AMT, and DLR start missing or guiding lower, the Real Estate tailwind helping SBAC and other Real Estate names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits SBAC and other Real Estate names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-291mo agoItem 2.02
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, the following exhibits are furnished as part of this Current Report. Exhibit No. Description 99.1 Press release issued by SBA Communications Corporation on April 29, 2026. 104 Cover Page Interactive File (the cover page tags are embedded within the Inline XBRL document). SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the Registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly author…
Earnings preannouncementnegative
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-4.7 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.