Reading SARO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SARO free→Reading SARO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SARO free→NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits may not be well-supported by cash flow. Management's recent track record has been neutral, and risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop presents a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 20% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly impact performance. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $26.91. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $27 SARO trades at 31× p/e, below its 38× p/e peer median. Our $34 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $30–$39. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 20% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.75x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated fragile grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, the US dollar, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.31 → $0.30 (-1.5% / 30d). 1 raised, 2 cut, 9 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 1 downgrade / 30d, 0 maintained. 80% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 9.6% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$168.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$349.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,651.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The new CEO's direction may affect company strategy and performance. This could change investor sentiment.
Confirms one read:The new CEO shares plans that help the company do better.
Confirms the other:The change causes uncertainty and poor performance results.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SARO yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Chief Executive Officer — Russell Ford: Russell Ford is retiring as CEO and Chairman, succeeded by Paul McElhinney.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$30.00 – $39.00 (median $37.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-06-02
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Aerospace & Defense.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
SARO StandardAero | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 63 of 100 | fair | moderate |
GE GE Aerospace | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 68 of 100 | full | moderate |
RTX RTX Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 72 of 100 | fair | moderate |
BA Boeing | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 18 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
LMT Lockheed Martin | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 58 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1113).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
StandardAero aims to increase its revenue guidance for the full year 2026.
StandardAero plans to increase its free cash flow guidance for the full year 2026.
StandardAero is focused on maintaining strong growth in operating income.
Why it matters: Changes in consumer prices can change how much people want StandardAero's services. Inflation affects costs and prices.
Confirms one read:CPI increases above 3% year over year.
Confirms the other:CPI decreases below 1% year over year.
Why it matters: An update on free cash flow guidance would indicate capital strength. This is key for future investments.
Confirms one read:Management raises free cash flow guidance for 2026 beyond current levels.
Confirms the other:Management lowers free cash flow guidance for 2026.
Why it matters: Changes in the industrial sector could affect StandardAero's growth. This is important for future planning.
Confirms:The industrial sector shows signs of faster revenue growth.
Disproves:The industrial sector keeps showing slower growth trends.
and shall be deemed to be furnished, and not filed: Exhibit No. Description 99.1 Press Release dated May 7, 2026 104 Cover Page Interactive Data File (embedded within the Inline XBRL document) SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized. STANDARDAERO, INC . Date: May 7, 2026 By: /s/ Daniel Satterfield Daniel Satterfield Chief Financial Officer