Reading RPM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track RPM free→Reading RPM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track RPM free→NYSEMaterialsSpecialty ChemicalsSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits are not well supported by cash flow. Management's track record has been fairly steady, and the company has a capital-friendly approach. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with RPM trading above typical levels compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair), and the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $107.05. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $107 RPM trades at 20× p/e, below its 20× p/e peer median. Our $109 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Analysts: $118–$130. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 2% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1462).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.21x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Materials names rated fragile grew net income 46% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=988).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.89 → $1.92 (+1.5% / 30d). 1 raised, 1 cut, 8 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 93% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 26.3% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$119.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$265.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,659.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Positive revenue growth in the materials sector could signal a broader recovery. This would benefit RPM.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth reported at 1% or higher year over year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains negative year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for RPM yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement Amendment of Accounts Receivable Securitization Facility On May 27, 2026, RPM International Inc. (the “Company”) amended its existing $300.0 million accounts receivable securitization facility (the “A/R Facility”) by entering into (i) Amendment No. 11 to Amended and Restated Receivables Purchase Agreement, dated as of May 27, 2026 (the “RPA Amendment”), among the Company, RPM Funding Corporation, a special purpose entity (the “SPE”) whose voting inte…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$118.00 – $130.00 (median $123.00) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-05-27
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Specialty Chemicals.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
RPM RPM International | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 75 of 100 | fair | moderate |
SHW Sherwin-Williams | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 71 of 100 | full | moderate |
ECL Ecolab | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
PPG PPG Industries | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | fair | moderate |
LYB LyondellBasell | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 54 of 100 | — | moderate |
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=272).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLB
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on achieving mid-single-digit sales growth compared to prior-year record results.
Aim to grow adjusted EBIT in the low- to high-single-digit range compared to prior-year record results.
Utilize MAP operational improvement initiatives to achieve record EBIT.
Why it matters: The new CEO may change RPM's direction. This could affect growth and investor confidence.
Confirms one read:The new CEO outlines a clear growth strategy in the next earnings call.
Confirms the other:The new CEO does not provide a clear strategy or direction.
Why it matters: RPM is in a mature phase with slow growth. A pickup in revenue growth signals a positive change.
Confirms:RPM reports 3-year revenue growth above 1% in the next earnings report.
Disproves:RPM reports 3-year revenue growth remaining at or below 1%.
Why it matters: Sales growth in this range shows RPM is on track with its goals. It can boost investor confidence.
Confirms:Q3 sales growth reported at 5% or higher year over year.
Disproves:Q3 sales growth reported below 3% year over year.
Why it matters: This growth signals RPM is improving its profitability. It is crucial for long-term success.
Confirms:Adjusted EBIT growth reported between 5% and 10% year over year.
Disproves:Adjusted EBIT growth reported below 3% year over year.
Why it matters: Record EBIT shows RPM is managing costs well. It also shows they are working efficiently.
Confirms:EBIT reported at an all-time high compared to previous quarters.
Disproves:EBIT fails to reach previous highs or declines.
Vice President – Operations — Timothy R. Kinser: Mr. Kinser retired from his position and took a new role within the company.
Director — Thomas C. Gentile, III: Appointment of a new director to the board.