Reading ROST? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ROST free→Reading ROST? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ROST free→NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel RetailSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may affect future growth. Earnings quality and management's track record are neutral, and risk is moderate. Peer multiples imply a price about 103% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich. The outlook hinges on whether ROST cuts guidance on the next call, as that could negatively impact estimates and the stock's performance.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $240.13. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $240 ROST trades at 34× p/e — 2.2× the 16× p/e peer median, and above its own 25× history. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $119 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $180–$290. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 103% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 8%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality.
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated strong grew net income 70% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.49x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=3229).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.78 → $1.93 (+8.1% / 30d). 13 raised, 0 cut, 15 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 9 maintained. 79% of analysts rate Buy.
10 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 13.3% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$86.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$166.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $779.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation fell by 22.9 points (from 28.2 to 5.3).
As of June 12, 2026, valuation fell. The sector backdrop is a headwind. Recent financial performance remains strong, while risk is moderate.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: An increase in EPS guidance would signal stronger profit expectations. This could boost investor confidence.
Confirms:Management says EPS guidance will go up for fiscal 2026.
Disproves:Management maintains or lowers EPS guidance for fiscal 2026.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ROST yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 21, 2026, the Company issued a press release regarding the Company’s financial results for its fiscal quarter ended May 2, 2026. The full text of the Company’s press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information furnished with this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), nor shall it be deemed incorporate…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$180.00 – $290.00 (median $245.00) · 15 analysts · as of 2026-05-26
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Apparel Retail.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ROST Ross Stores | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
TJX TJX Companies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
BURL Burlington Stores | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 98 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
GAP Gap Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 96 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
URBN Urban Outfitters, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 76 of 100 | fair | moderate |
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=646).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 4 guided quarters · 11.7% avg surprise
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims to increase earnings per share guidance for fiscal 2026.
Management is focused on increasing comparable store sales.
The company aims to maintain its dividend per share.
Why it matters: This report will provide key insights into sales and profit trends. It can impact stock performance.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows revenue growth above 5% year over year.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows revenue growth below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: This report can indicate consumer spending trends. Strong retail sales can boost Ross's performance.
Confirms one read:Retail sales grow by more than 0.5% month over month.
Confirms the other:Retail sales decline by more than 0.5% month over month.
Why it matters: Growth in comparable store sales shows customer demand strength. This can lead to higher revenue.
Confirms:Comparable store sales grow year over year by more than 5%.
Disproves:Comparable store sales decline year over year or grow less than 2%.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows good financial health. It helps investors feel secure.
Confirms:Management says the dividend per share will stay the same or go up.
Disproves:Management announces a cut to the dividend per share.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 3, 2026, the Company issued a press release regarding the Company’s financial results for its fiscal quarter and fiscal year ended January 31, 2026. The full text of the Company’s press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information furnished with this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), nor shall it…
Executive Chairman — Michael Balmuth: Michael Balmuth is retiring as Executive Chairman and will be succeeded by K. Gunnar Bjorklund.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 20, 2025, the Company issued a press release regarding the Company’s financial results for its fiscal quarter ended November 1, 2025. The full text of the Company’s press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information furnished with this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), nor shall it be deemed i…
Chief Financial Officer (CFO) — Adam Orvos: Adam Orvos is retiring as CFO, and William Sheehan has been appointed as the new CFO.