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RLI
RLI Corp.NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-06-12
Watch· this month
$54.35+0.41%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is weak, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may challenge RLI's growth. Earnings quality is neutral, while management's recent track record has been steady and capital-friendly. Peer multiples imply a price about 40% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. Key factors to watch include the performance of sector bellwethers and any potential changes in interest rates. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Financials
- Industry
- Insurance - Property & Casualty
- Market cap
- $4.98B
- Employees
- 1,193
- IPO date
- 1995-05-12
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-20
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $54.35. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$38.86consensus
Range $35.86 – $41.96
vs price: +40% above
Method agreement — · 6 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfull
$46.87consensus
Range $30.40 – $59.58
vs price: +16% above
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearfull
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Durable premiummedium confidence
At $54 the market pays 16× p/e — above the 11× p/e peer median but in line with its own 26× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $39 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
15.8x
peer 10.9x · own history 26.2x
Premium
1.4x peer
0.6x its own history
Growth the price needs
40%
our forecast 2%
Our fair value
$38.86
range $31.83 – $41.85
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiverich12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 40% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 2%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
weakOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=3730).
19th pctl · Financials
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.40x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=4725).
61st pctl · Financials
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
stable1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
NeutralEPS revised -3.8% / 30d, n=8for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.72 → $0.69 (-3.8% / 30d). 0 raised, 7 cut, 8 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 13% of analysts rate Buy.
Material events
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: financials is in growth, with decelerating (~3.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: by revenue growth.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- weak
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-12
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$118.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$249.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,322.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceWeeksactive 7d
Watch for dividend payments on June 12, 2026
Why it matters: Paying dividends shows the company is doing well. It also shows they care about shareholders.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:RLI will pay the special cash dividend of $2.00 and the regular dividend of $0.18 on time.
Disproves:RLI suspends or reduces the dividend payments on June 12, 2026.
Material event
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for RLI yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth dropping below 10% across major banks
- Watch for changes in FOMC interest rate policy on June 17
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like CB, PGR, and TRV keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Financials sector momentum should keep lifting RLI and other Financials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If RLI beats again next quarter like it did this past one (a beat of +6% on the 2026-03-31 print), the momentum tends to extend, with Street estimates ratcheting up and the stock typically following.
Downside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would weigh on RLI and other Financials names, since the sector usually outperforms when rates stay high.
- If sector bellwethers like CB, PGR, and TRV start missing or guiding lower, the Financials tailwind helping RLI and other Financials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits RLI and other Financials names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-141mo agoItem 8.01
Other Events. On May 14, 2026, RLI Corp. (“RLI”) a nnounced that its Board of Directors approved a special cash dividend on its common stock of $2.00 per share and a regular quarterly dividend on its common stock of $0.18 per share. Both dividends are payable on June 12, 2026 to shareholders of record as of May 29, 2026. RLI also announced its Board of Directors approved a share repurchase program authorizing an aggregate of $250 million in share repurchases (the “Repurchase Program”). Re…
Capital allocationpositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+8.9 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.