Reading RH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track RH free→Reading RH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track RH free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may challenge the company's prospects. Peer multiples imply a price about 4% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. The outlook hinges on guidance changes and sector trends, particularly the performance of key competitors. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $153.04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $153 RH trades at 36× p/e — 2.3× the 16× p/e peer median, and above its own 24× history. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $117 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $130–$240. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 31% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about 7%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=3804).
Over the trailing year it converted 4.06x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated robust grew net income 65% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $2.11 → $2.07 (-2.3% / 30d). 0 raised, 12 cut, 16 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 6 maintained. 35% of analysts rate Buy.
4 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target -2.4% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$201.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$554.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,504.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Company momentum fell by 78.8 points (from 49.2 to -29.6) after fresh earnings.
Composite insight fell by 21.2 points (from 14.1 to -7.1) after fresh earnings.
Signal changed from 'mild_favorable' to 'mixed' after fresh earnings.
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The earnings report will provide insights into RH's performance and future outlook. This is crucial for investor confidence.
Confirms one read:The earnings report shows revenue and profit margins are better than expected.
Confirms the other:The earnings report shows revenue and profit margins are worse than expected.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for RH yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On June 11, 2026, RH released its financial results for the first quarter ended May 2, 2026 in a letter to shareholders that is available on the investor relations section of its website. Copies of the press release announcing the release of financial results and the letter to shareholders are attached hereto as Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2, respectively, and are incorporated herein by reference. The information provided in this Item 2.02, including Ex…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$130.00 – $240.00 (median $160.00) · 7 analysts · as of 2026-06-12
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Consumer Discretionary (broad).
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
RH RH | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 25 of 100 | expensive | high |
BURL Burlington Stores | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 98 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
DKS Dick's Sporting Goods | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 36 of 100 | full | moderate |
SN SharkNinja | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 53 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
H Hyatt | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 20 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on achieving revenue growth of 0.5% to 2.5% for the second quarter of 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue decreased from $813.95M in 2025-Q1 to $800.33M in 2026-Q1, indicating a decline. Despite this, management has raised the revenue growth outlook for 2026-Q2 to 0.5% to 2.5%, showing a focus on reversing the trend.
“As a result of our better than expected first quarter results we are raising our outlook for fiscal year 2026.”
“FIRST QUARTER 2026 OUTLOOK Revenue Growth of -2% to -4%”
Target an adjusted operating margin of 11.5% to 13.0% for the second quarter of 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Operating income decreased from $55.91M in 2025-Q1 to $34.24M in 2026-Q1, reflecting a challenge in margin improvement. Management's target for an adjusted operating margin of 11.5% to 13.0% in 2026-Q2 indicates a focus on reversing this trend.
Aim to achieve adjusted free cash flow of $300M to $400M for fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Cash from operating activities was $52.50M in 2026-Q1, indicating a need for improvement to meet the $300M to $400M free cash flow target for fiscal year 2026. Management's consistent guidance reflects a focus on enhancing cash flow.
Company quality fell by 9.0 points (from 61.4 to 52.4).
Valuation fell by 11.6 points (from 44.6 to 33.0).
Company momentum fell. Earnings quality also fell. The sector backdrop remains a headwind. Confidence changed to high.
as of 2026-06-12
Why it matters: The earnings report will show how well RH is doing in a tough market. It will help investors understand revenue growth and profitability.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows revenue growth above 4% year over year.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows revenue growth below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: CPI data can affect how much people spend and inflation. This impacts RH's sales.
Confirms one read:CPI shows a smaller increase than expected. This suggests prices are stable.
Confirms the other:CPI shows a bigger increase than expected. This suggests inflation is rising.
Why it matters: The consumer price index affects spending habits. Changes can impact RH's sales and margins.
Confirms one read:CPI shows an increase above 3% year over year.
Confirms the other:CPI shows a decrease below 1% year over year.
Why it matters: Retail sales data will show consumer spending trends. This is key for RH's performance in the consumer sector.
Confirms one read:Retail sales report shows growth above 5% year over year.
Confirms the other:Retail sales report shows decline below 2% year over year.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal a shift in the consumer discretionary sector. This would impact RH's performance.
Confirms:Revenue growth falls below the median for the last two quarters.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains above the median for the last two quarters.
“Adjusted EBITDA Margin of 11.5% to 13.0%”
“Adjusted EBITDA Margin of 5.5% to 6.5%”
“Adjusted Free Cash Flow of $300M to $400M”
“Adjusted Free Cash Flow of $300M to $400M”