Reading RENT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track RENT free→Reading RENT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track RENT free→NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel RetailSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits are not well supported by cash. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop presents a headwind, which could further challenge the company. Peer multiples imply a price about 6% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening, as it is priced roughly in line with peers, but recent financials or earnings quality are weakening. Key factors to watch include any potential guidance cuts and the performance of sector bellwethers like TJX, ROST, and BURL. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $3.49. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $3.49 RENT trades at 1× p/e, below its 16× p/e peer median. Our $3.53 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 1% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 13%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.29x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated fragile grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$305.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$804.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,454.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
As of June 12, 2026, the valuation dimension changed, moving from inexpensive to fair. The earnings quality remains fragile, and recent financial performance is weak. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and risk is high. The overall valuation is fair but noted as weakening.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
No named catalysts to watch right now. Check back after the next earnings report.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for RENT yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On June 3, 2026, Rent the Runway, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended April 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K and is incorporated by reference. Information in Exhibit 99.1 of this Form 8-K shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise inc…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Apparel Retail.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
RENT Rent the Runway Inc | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
TJX TJX Companies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
ROST Ross Stores | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
BURL Burlington Stores | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 98 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
GAP Gap Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 96 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
Not enough signal yet.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims for double-digit revenue growth in fiscal year 2026 compared to fiscal year 2025.
Management plans to reduce rental product acquisition costs to between $45 million and $50 million in fiscal year 2026.
Management targets an adjusted EBITDA margin of between 4% and 7% for fiscal year 2026.