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REFR
Research Frontiers IncNASDAQInformation TechnologyElectronic ComponentsSnapshot 2026-06-12
Watch· this week
$0.71-3.92%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is weak, and the company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but it has a capital-unfriendly stance. Risk is high, and compared with sector peers, it is below typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 69% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich. This analysis is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Information Technology
- Industry
- Electronic Components
- Market cap
- $25.77M
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1995-08-14
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $0.71. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$0.43consensus
Range $0.26 – $0.59
vs price: +67% above
Method agreement — · 2 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfull
$0.65consensus
Range $0.40 – $0.90
vs price: +10% above
Method agreement — · 2 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearfair
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Optionality premiumlow confidence
At $0.71, REFR's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 25× p/s (6.8× the 4× p/s peer median). At a normal multiple the price implies ~70% near-term growth vs our ~-55% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $0.42 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/S)
25.2x
peer 3.7x · own history —
Premium
6.8x peer
Growth the price needs
70%
our forecast -55%
Our fair value
$0.42
range $0.26 – $0.57
WhyPeer anchor understates a real premiumOptionality our model can't price
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiverich12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 70% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about -55%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Elevated fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
Historical context
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
weakOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated weak grew net income 63% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
21st pctl · Information Technology
Earnings quality
loss makingOver the trailing year it converted 0.61x of net income into operating cash flow.
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, the US dollar, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
neutral1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by legal/regulatory items. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1040).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: information technology is in growth, with decelerating (~1.0 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): tailwind.Secular epoch: Growth by revenue growth · theme AI/accelerated-compute.tailwind+21.6%sector vs S&P 500, 60d
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
AI cycle regime · market-wide
2-axis classifierLong-term · 1–3 yr
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: weakProvisional
- Capital allocation
- weak
- Margin discipline
- weak
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-12
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$150.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$798.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,992.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
highas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
No named catalysts to watch right now. Check back after the next earnings report.
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for REFR yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth in Information Technology to fall below the median.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for REFR and other Tech names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like APH, GLW, and TEL keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Tech sector momentum should keep lifting REFR and other Tech names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
Downside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like APH, GLW, and TEL start missing or guiding lower, the Tech tailwind helping REFR and other Tech names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits REFR and other Tech names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
- If REFR misses again next quarter like this past one (a miss of -9% on the 2025-09-30 print), expect continued pressure. The Street usually keeps walking estimates down after consecutive misses.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-058d agoItem 3.01
Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standard; Transfer of Listing. On June 2, 2026, Research Frontiers Incorporated (the “Company”) received two deficiency notification letters from the Listing Qualifications Department of The Nasdaq Stock Market LLC (“Nasdaq”). The first notification letter advised the Company that, based upon the closing bid price of the Company’s common stock for the 30 consecutive business days from April 15, 2026 to June 1, 2026, the Com…
Legal / regulatorynegative
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-0.6 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.