Reading QLYS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track QLYS free→Reading QLYS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track QLYS free→NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong. Earnings quality is neutral. Management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is elevated, but the sector backdrop is a tailwind. Compared with sector peers, QLYS is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 32% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. If QLYS cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $111.24. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $111 QLYS trades at 15× p/e, below its 28× p/e peer median. Our $169 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $85–$125. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 34% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 11%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated strong grew net income 73% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.47x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2831).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.78 → $1.78 (+0.5% / 30d). 7 raised, 11 cut, 21 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 23% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$155.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$414.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,046.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Net income is growing steadily. This shows good financial management. It helps build trust with investors.
Confirms:Net income grows by at least 5% in Q2 compared to Q1.
Disproves:Net income growth is flat or negative in Q2 compared to Q1.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for QLYS yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Approval of Qualys, Inc. 2012 Equity Incentive Plan, as amended and restated On June 10, 2026, the stockholders of Qualys, Inc. (the “Company”) approved the Company’s 2012 Equity Incentive Plan, as amended and restated (the “Plan”). A description of the material terms of the Plan is incorporated herein by reference to “Proposal No. 4—Approval of th…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$85.00 – $125.00 (median $98.00) · 6 analysts · as of 2026-05-06
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Systems Software.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
QLYS Qualys | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 95 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
MSFT Microsoft | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | full | moderate |
PANW Palo Alto Networks | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 39 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CRWD CrowdStrike | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 29 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
NOW ServiceNow | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 57 of 100 | full | elevated |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Information Technology names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=797).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 3 guided quarters · 59.6% avg surprise
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on driving revenue growth through strategic initiatives and market expansion.
Improve operating income through cost management and efficiency initiatives.
Aim to boost net income through revenue growth and cost efficiency.
Why it matters: Sector growth affects Qualys. A drop below median may hurt performance.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth reported below its median.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains above its median.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is a key priority. A drop below 10% may signal trouble.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported below 10% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth reported above 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Net income growth is important. A drop below 5% may raise concerns.
Confirms:Net income growth reported below 5% year over year.
Disproves:Net income growth reported above 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Qualys is growing its operating income. This means they are managing costs well. This is key for making money over time.
Confirms:Operating income increases by more than 5% in Q2 compared to Q1.
Disproves:Operating income growth is less than 2% in Q2 compared to Q1.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026, Qualys, Inc. (“Qualys”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. In the press release, Qualys also announced that it will hold a conference call on May 5, 2026, to discuss its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. The full text of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. This information is intended to be fur…