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PayPalNASDAQFinancialsCredit ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-12
Watch· this month
$41.53+0.70%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is mixed. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes, and the capital stance is capital unfriendly. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, while compared with sector peers, PYPL is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 45% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. This analysis is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Financials
- Industry
- Credit Services
- Market cap
- $36.57B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2015-07-20
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-28
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $41.53. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryinexpensive
$78.08consensus
Range $66.12 – $79.28
vs price: -47% below
Method agreement — · 8 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$85.34consensus
Range $67.75 – $91.42
vs price: -51% below
Method agreement — · 7 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peerslow confidence
At $42 PYPL trades at 8× p/e, below its 15× p/e peer median. Our $74 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $44–$54. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
7.8x
peer 14.6x · own history 13.4x
Premium
0.5x peer
0.6x its own history
Growth the price needs
-44%
our forecast 16%
Our fair value
$74.43
range $64.47 – $79.28
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is above the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
inexpensivecheap — quality intact12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 44% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 16%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
44th pctl · Financials
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.26x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=4725).
52nd pctl · Financials
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
Management & capital allocation
volatileEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
BearishEPS revised -4.2% / 30d, n=35for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $1.34 → $1.28 (-4.2% / 30d). 1 raised, 27 cut, 35 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 18% of analysts rate Buy.
Material events
1 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: financials is in growth, with decelerating (~3.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- weak
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$132.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$347.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,992.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 18d
Watch for Q2 2026 GAAP EPS declining mid-single digits
Why it matters: If GAAP EPS goes down, it shows ongoing problems. This could hurt investor trust.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q2 2026 GAAP EPS reported as a mid-single digit decline from $1.29.
Disproves:Q2 2026 GAAP EPS shows stability or growth compared to $1.29.
Earnings call
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-06-102d agoYahoo! Finance
Advances: Sharpen strategy and accelerate growth
Deepening embedded reach supports growth strategy.
ReinforcesUnconfirmed report
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth dropping below 10% across major banks
- Watch for changes in FOMC interest rate policy on June 17
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like V, MA, and AXP keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Financials sector momentum should keep lifting PYPL and other Financials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If PYPL raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-05-05), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If PYPL cuts guidance on the next call (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-05-05), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would weigh on PYPL and other Financials names, since the sector usually outperforms when rates stay high.
- If sector bellwethers like V, MA, and AXP start missing or guiding lower, the Financials tailwind helping PYPL and other Financials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-2123d agoItem 5.02
EVP, General Manager, Consumer Group — Diego Scotti: Mr. Scotti ceased to serve as EVP, General Manager, Consumer Group with a separation agreement.
Executive changenegative
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+4.4 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.