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Paramount Skydance CorporationNASDAQCommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-06-12
Watch· 1–3 mo
$10.47-0.19%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is weak, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality cannot be assessed as the company was unprofitable over the past year. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair, but weakening, as it is priced roughly in line with peers, but recent financials or earnings quality are weakening. Key factors to watch include guidance changes from PSKY and the performance of sector bellwethers like NFLX, DIS, and WBD. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Communication Services
- Industry
- Entertainment
- Market cap
- $11.54B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2025-05-14
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-30
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $10.47. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$7.06consensus
Range $3.15 – $17.84
vs price: +48% above
Method agreement — · 4 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$28.29consensus
Range $28.29 – $28.29
vs price: -63% below
Method agreement — · 1 method
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peerslow confidence
At $10 PSKY trades at 0× p/s, below its 1× p/s peer median. Our $8.29 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/S)
0.2x
peer 1.3x · own history 0.2x
Premium
0.2x peer
0.8x its own history
Growth the price needs
26%
our forecast —
Our fair value
$8.29
range $5.01 – $24.80
WhyValuation methods disagreeEarnings too small for P/EPeer anchor overstates the discount
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensivefair — but weakening12-month view
What's priced in
The market is pricing in roughly 26% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
weakOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Communication Services names rated weak grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=701).
21st pctl · Communication Services
Earnings quality
loss makingOver the trailing year it converted -0.12x of net income into operating cash flow.
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
Management & capital allocation
volatile13 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Communication Services names rated volatile grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=200).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Bullish16 analysts, 15% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.17 → $0.18 (+3.0% / 30d). 7 raised, 4 cut, 16 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 15% of analysts rate Buy.
Material events
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Transition story with positive analyst positioning (often a turnaround setup).
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: communication services is in (~0.2 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutralProvisional
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- strong
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-12
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$184.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$556.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,504.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- label change · valuation_labelsmall change
Valuation label changed from 'full' to 'expensive'.
Valuation changed. It rose from "full" to "fair." Risk fell. The sector backdrop fell. Recent financial performance remained weak. Earnings quality is still loss-making. Management is still volatile.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideMedium confidenceMonthsactive 18d
Watch for Q2 adjusted EBITDA results
Why it matters: The adjusted EBITDA results will show if the company is on track for its $3.8B target in 2026.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q2 adjusted EBITDA is over $900M. This shows strong performance.
Disproves:Q2 adjusted EBITDA is below $700M. This shows challenges in reaching the target.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for PSKY yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth cooling below 10% YoY
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for PSKY and other Communication Services names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like NFLX, DIS, and WBD keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Communication Services sector momentum should keep lifting PSKY and other Communication Services names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If PSKY raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-04), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If PSKY cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-04), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like NFLX, DIS, and WBD start missing or guiding lower, the Communication Services tailwind helping PSKY and other Communication Services names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-103d agoItem 7.01
Regulation FD Disclosure. As previously disclosed, Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc., a Delaware corporation (“WBD”), Paramount Skydance Corporation, a Delaware corporation (“PSKY”), and Prince Sub Inc., a Delaware corporation and wholly owned subsidiary of PSKY (“Merger Sub”), entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger on February 27, 2026, pursuant to which, and subject to the terms and conditions therein, at the effective time of the Merger, Merger Sub will merge with and into WBD, with WBD s…
M&A activityneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-0.9 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.