Reading PRKS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PRKS free→Reading PRKS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PRKS free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and risk is elevated. Earnings quality is robust, indicating that cash backs up reported profits. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, PRKS trades below typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 15% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $45.15. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $45 PRKS trades at 13× p/e, below its 16× p/e peer median. Our $53 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $40–$54. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 15% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=3804).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.80x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated robust grew net income 65% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.69 → $1.77 (+5.1% / 30d). 3 raised, 0 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 50% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$253.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$405.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,615.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Weak guidance could indicate ongoing challenges and affect stock performance. It will be a key indicator of management's outlook.
Confirms:Management says earnings will be lower than what the market expects.
Disproves:Management says earnings will meet or be better than what the market expects.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for PRKS yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
of Form 8-K and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing made by the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$40.00 – $54.00 (median $54.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-05-12
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Consumer Discretionary (broad).
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
PRKS United Parks & Resorts | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 19 of 100 | fair | elevated |
BURL Burlington Stores | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 98 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
DKS Dick's Sporting Goods | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 36 of 100 | full | moderate |
SN SharkNinja | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 53 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
H Hyatt | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 20 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on achieving growth in revenue and Adjusted EBITDA for the fiscal year 2026.
Aim to increase advanced booking revenue at Discovery Cove.
Focus on increasing group booking revenue across the company.
Why it matters: Strong group booking revenue helps growth and shows good management performance.
Confirms:Group booking revenue increases by more than 15% year over year.
Disproves:Group booking revenue growth slows to less than 5% year over year.
Why it matters: High unemployment claims may show the economy is weak. This can hurt consumer spending and United Parks & Resorts' revenue.
Confirms:Unemployment claims go up a lot compared to previous weeks.
Disproves:Unemployment claims decrease or stay stable.
Why it matters: A drop below the median would signal a change in the growth phase for the sector. This could impact investor confidence in United Parks & Resorts.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported below the median for the sector.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth remains above the median for the sector.
Why it matters: Earnings results will provide insights on revenue and EBITDA growth progress.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows revenue growth above 5% year over year.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows revenue growth below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: Retail sales trends can impact visitor numbers and revenue for parks and resorts.
Confirms one read:Retail sales report shows growth above 3% year over year.
Confirms the other:Retail sales report shows decline below 1% year over year.