Reading POST? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track POST free→Reading POST? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track POST free→NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and the company's capital stance is capital-friendly. However, the sector backdrop is a headwind, and risk is moderate. Peer multiples imply a price about 22% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, quality intact. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $93.14. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $93 POST trades at 12× p/e, below its 13× p/e peer median. Our $117 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 21% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 8%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated strong grew net income 66% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=1144).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.47x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 51% for the rest of the cohort, n=1037).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=491).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.72 → $1.72 (+0.1% / 30d). 2 raised, 3 cut, 7 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 71% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$105.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$253.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,259.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This will show if the company can recover from its recent earnings miss.
Confirms:Q3 earnings show a big improvement from the last earnings miss.
Disproves:Q3 earnings miss expectations again. This shows there are still problems.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for POST yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
CEO — Robert V. Vitale and Nicolas Catoggio: Robert V. Vitale transitions to Executive Chairman, and Nicolas Catoggio is appointed as the new President and CEO.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Packaged Foods & Meats.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
POST Post Holdings | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 97 of 100 | fair | moderate |
MDLZ Mondelez International | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 39 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
HSY Hershey Company (The) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
KHC Kraft Heinz | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
TSN Tyson Foods | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | fair | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Post Holdings plans to execute a $600 million share repurchase program as part of its capital allocation strategy.
Robert V. Vitale transitions to Executive Chairman, and Nicolas Catoggio is appointed as the new President and CEO.
Post Holdings aims to address the recent earnings miss and improve financial performance.
Why it matters: Leadership changes can shift company strategy and performance. Investors will want to see how this affects Post's direction.
Confirms one read:The company will share better plans or financial results by the next earnings call. This will be under the new leadership.
Confirms the other:No changes in strategy or performance will be reported by the next earnings call.
Why it matters: This program could boost earnings per share and show confidence in the company's value.
Confirms:Management reports progress on the share buyback program. This means they are buying back many shares.
Disproves:There are no updates on the share buyback program. There are also no delays.
and Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Other Events. On May 5, 2026, the Board approved, effective May 9, 2026 (the “Effective Date”), a $600.0 million share repurchase authorization (the “New Authorization”) and cancelled, effective May 8, 2026, its existing $500.0 million share repurchase authorization, which was approved by the Board on February 3, 2026 and became effective on February 7, 2026 (the “Existing Authorization”). The Company had repurchased approximately $263.4 million of shares of the Company’s common stock under t…