Reading PLMR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PLMR free→Reading PLMR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PLMR free→NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, while risk is elevated and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 34% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. If PLMR reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising, that could lead to a credibility hit. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $114.85. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $115 the market pays 15× p/e — above the 11× p/e peer median but in line with its own 21× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $86 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 34% near-term growth, below our forecast of about 48%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.87x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated robust grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $2.21 → $2.25 (+2.0% / 30d). 3 raised, 3 cut, 7 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 88% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$152.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$366.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,751.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The share repurchase plan could boost earnings per share and investor confidence. It shows management's commitment to returning value to shareholders.
Confirms:Management says they are making progress on the share buyback. A large part of the $200M has been repurchased.
Disproves:There are no updates or delays on the share repurchase plan. This shows a lack of commitment.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for PLMR yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Class I director — Scott Beiser: Scott Beiser was appointed as a Class I director and joined several committees.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Property & Casualty Insurance.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
PLMR Palomar Holdings, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 37 of 100 | full | elevated |
CB Chubb Limited | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 69 of 100 | full | moderate |
PGR Progressive Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 76 of 100 | fair | moderate |
TRV Travelers Companies (The) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 87 of 100 | fair | low |
ALL Allstate | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Palomar Holdings plans to repurchase up to $200 million of its outstanding shares over two years.
Palomar Holdings aims to increase its revenue growth consistently over the quarters.
Palomar Holdings is committed to maintaining strong operating income levels.
Why it matters: Strong operating income is important for making money. It shows how well the company controls costs.
Confirms:Operating income in Q2 stays at or above $53.5 million. This shows stability.
Disproves:Operating income drops below $53.5 million. This suggests there may be cost issues.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is key for the company’s future. It shows how well the business is doing.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported above 10% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth reported below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth could signal broader economic challenges. It may affect Palomar's performance.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth falls below its median. This may mean a slowdown is coming.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth stays above its median. This suggests the sector remains strong.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 6, 2026, Palomar Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information contained under this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise s…
Other Events. On April 30, 2026, the Company’s Board of Directors approved the adoption of a share repurchase plan (the “Plan”), effective May 6, 2026, that authorizes the purchase of up to $200 million of the outstanding shares of Company common stock, as conditions warrant, with a term of two years from the effective date. Upon the effectiveness of the Plan, the Company’s existing share repurchase plan was terminated. Attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 is the press release issued by the Compan…