Reading PII? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PII free→Reading PII? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PII free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRecreational VehiclesSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and the company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Management's recent track record has been steady, but risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 105% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified, as it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. If PII cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $70.93. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $71 PII trades at 1× p/s, below its 1× p/s peer median. Our $34 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 106% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 4%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.76x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, the US dollar.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.68 → $0.70 (+3.5% / 30d). 2 raised, 2 cut, 16 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 17% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$193.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$465.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,420.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Sales growth over 8% shows strong progress. It supports management's plan for more revenue.
Confirms:Q2 sales growth reported above 8% compared to Q2 2025.
Disproves:Q2 sales growth reported below 8% compared to Q2 2025.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for PII yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 27, 2026, Polaris Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release on the Company's website announcing the first quarter 2026 financial results for the reporting period ended March 31, 2026. On April 28, 2026, the Company will host its quarterly earnings conference call, which will be accessible to the public. A replay of the conference call will be available by accessing the webcast link on the Company’s website at https://ir.polaris.com. A…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Leisure Products.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
PII Polaris | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 41 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
HAS Hasbro | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 71 of 100 | fair | moderate |
GOLF Acushnet Company | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
BC Brunswick | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 11 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
MAT Mattel | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 61 of 100 | fair | moderate |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated stable grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=483).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing revenue through higher shipment volumes and positive pricing.
Enhance gross profit margins through operational efficiencies and positive product mix.
Improve cash flow from operations through better working capital management.
Why it matters: If sector growth slows, it may impact Polaris. This could affect their sales and profits.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth drops below its median for the last year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth stays above its median for the last year.
Why it matters: A higher gross profit margin means better cost control. It also shows stronger pricing power.
Confirms:Gross profit margin reported above 20.2% in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Gross profit margin reported below 20.2% in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Better cash flow shows Polaris can fund its operations and growth. This is key for stability.
Confirms:Cash from operations turns positive and exceeds $100M in Q2.
Disproves:Cash from operations remains negative or worsens in Q2.
Why it matters: Retail sales growth above 3% in ORV would indicate strong demand and market share gains.
Confirms:Retail sales growth in ORV reported above 3% year over year.
Disproves:Retail sales growth in ORV reported below 3% year over year.
Why it matters: Adjusted EPS of $0.13 or more shows good cost control. It also means better operations.
Confirms:Adjusted EPS reported at or above $0.13 in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Adjusted EPS reported below $0.13 in Q2 2026.
The filing pertains to an amendment and restatement of the company's incentive plan.