Reading PGNY? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PGNY free→Reading PGNY? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PGNY free→NASDAQHealth CareHealthcare PlansSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, while risk is elevated and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, PGNY is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 20% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, quality intact. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $26.63. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $27 PGNY trades at 19× p/e, below its 19× p/e peer median. Our $33 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Analysts: $27–$30. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 20% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 13%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
Over the trailing year it converted 3.05x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated robust grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=1703).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=842).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.48 → $0.52 (+8.8% / 30d). 6 raised, 0 cut, 7 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 91% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 20.4% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 200.0% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$148.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$424.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,265.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation label changed from 'inexpensive' to 'fair'.
As of June 12, 2026, the valuation dimension changed and rose, with the valuation label changing from "inexpensive" to "fair." The risk dimension also fell, indicating a decrease in overall risk. The sector backdrop remains a headwind, which has not changed.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is crucial for the company’s long-term goals. It shows how well the business is doing.
Confirms:Q2 2026 revenue growth is reported above 10% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 2026 revenue growth drops below 5% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for PGNY yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Other Events. Progyny, Inc. (the “Company”) announced today that its Board of Directors has approved a share repurchase program to repurchase up to $200 million of its common stock. The program will be funded through available cash balances. Shares may be repurchased through open market repurchases, including through plans complying with Rule 10b5-1 under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, depending on stock price, market conditions and other factors deemed relevant in the Compa…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$27.00 – $30.00 (median $29.00) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-05-19
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Health Care Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
PGNY Progyny | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 95 of 100 | fair | elevated |
CVS CVS Health | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 60 of 100 | fair | moderate |
CI Cigna | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 88 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
DGX Quest Diagnostics | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 68 of 100 | full | moderate |
LH Labcorp | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 75 of 100 | fair | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Achieve revenue growth within the range of $1.365 billion to $1.405 billion for the fiscal year 2026.
Achieve an adjusted EBITDA within the range of $58 million to $62 million for the second quarter of 2026.
Focus on increasing gross profit through operational efficiencies and revenue growth.
Continue efforts to increase net income through revenue growth and cost management.
Why it matters: Higher net income shows that Progyny is managing costs well. This can boost investor confidence.
Confirms:Net income for Q2 increases year over year by more than 20%.
Disproves:Net income for Q2 grows less than 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Changes in the health care sector growth phase could impact Progyny's performance. The sector has been easing lately.
Confirms:Health care revenue growth drops below its median growth rate.
Disproves:Health care revenue growth stabilizes or improves above its median growth rate.
Why it matters: Updates on the $200 million share buyback could affect stock value and investor confidence.
Confirms:The company says it has bought back a large part of the $200 million share buyback.
Disproves:There are no updates or signs of share buybacks in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Progyny's gross profit keeps growing. This shows the company is getting better at its work.
Confirms:Gross profit for Q2 increases year over year by more than 10%.
Disproves:Gross profit for Q2 grows less than 5% year over year.
Why it matters: If revenue growth drops, it may indicate challenges in the business. This could affect investor sentiment.
Confirms:Revenue growth falls below the sector median of 5% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains above the sector median.
Why it matters: This will show if the company is on track to meet its profit goals. Adjusted EBITDA is key for understanding profitability.
Confirms one read:Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2026 is reported between $58M and $62M.
Confirms the other:Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2026 falls below $58M.
and Item 7.01, including Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or subject to the liabilities of that section. The information shall not be deemed incorporated by reference into any other filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission made by the Company, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing.