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PFG
Principal Financial GroupNASDAQFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-06-12
$111.11+1.30%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits, and risk is low. The sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact performance compared with sector peers, where it is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 11% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. This assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Financials
- Industry
- Asset Management
- Market cap
- $23.69B
- Employees
- 19,700
- IPO date
- 2001-06-08
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-27
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $111.11. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$125.13consensus
Range $110.74 – $172.60
vs price: -11% below
Method agreement — · 8 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$175.41consensus
Range $133.61 – $214.57
vs price: -37% below
Method agreement — · 7 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peersmedium confidence
At $111 PFG trades at 13× p/e, below its 15× p/e peer median. Our $125 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Analysts: $87–$111. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
13.0x
peer 14.6x · own history 11.8x
Premium
0.9x peer
1.1x its own history
Growth the price needs
-11%
our forecast -2%
Our fair value
$125.13
range $114.04 – $173.60
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is above the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fairfair12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 11% below a flat-multiple fair value, in line with our forecast of about -2%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
Not enough signal yet.
Earnings quality
robustOver the trailing year it converted 2.30x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated robust grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
82nd pctl · Financials
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
Management & capital allocation
volatile2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Bearish10 analysts, 17% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $2.31 → $2.31 (+0.3% / 30d). 6 raised, 3 cut, 10 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 1 downgrade / 30d, 1 maintained. 17% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 6.3% above current price.
Material events
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: is in (~3.2 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutralProvisional
- Capital allocation
- weak
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- strong
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-12
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$98.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$224.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,196.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
lowas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideMedium confidenceMonthsactive 18d
Watch for Q2 EPS growth meeting or exceeding 9%
Why it matters: Achieving this growth target shows the company is on track with its financial goals.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q2 EPS growth reported at 9% or higher.
Disproves:Q2 EPS growth reported below 9%.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for PFG yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth dropping below 10% across major banks
- Watch for changes in FOMC interest rate policy on June 17
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like BLK, BX, and KKR keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Financials sector momentum should keep lifting PFG and other Financials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
Downside triggers
- If PFG reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising (RAISED as of 2026-04-23), that's the worst kind of move: a credibility hit on top of the lower number. Stocks usually get punished disproportionately for this.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would weigh on PFG and other Financials names, since the sector usually outperforms when rates stay high.
- If sector bellwethers like BLK, BX, and KKR start missing or guiding lower, the Financials tailwind helping PFG and other Financials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits PFG and other Financials names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-0112d agoItem 1.01
Entry Into a Material Definitive Agreement. On June 1, 2026, Principal Financial Group, Inc. (the “Company”) issued $400,000,000 aggregate principal amount of its 5.300% Senior Notes due 2037 (the “Notes”). The Notes were issued pursuant to the Senior Indenture, dated as of May 21, 2009 (the “Senior Indenture”), among the Company, as issuer, Principal Financial Services, Inc. (“PFSI”), as guarantor, and The Bank of New York Mellon Trust Company, N.A., as trustee, as supplemented by the Eighte…
Capital allocationneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+12 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.