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Public Service Enterprise GroupNYSEUtilitiesUtilities - Regulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-06-12
Intact
$79.70+1.17%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits may not be well-supported by cash. Management's recent track record has been neutral, and risk is low, although the sector backdrop presents a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 5% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening, as it is priced roughly in line with peers, but recent financials or earnings quality are weakening. Key factors to watch include any guidance cuts from PEG and the performance of sector bellwethers like NEE, SO, and DUK, which could influence the stock's trajectory. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Utilities
- Industry
- Utilities - Regulated Electric
- Market cap
- $39.26B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1994-02-25
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-04
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $79.70. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$84.92consensus
Range $77.19 – $92.27
vs price: -6% below
Method agreement — · 6 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$85.52consensus
Range $81.00 – $93.56
vs price: -7% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearfair
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peershigh confidence
At $80 PEG trades at 17× p/e, below its 20× p/e peer median. Our $85 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $88–$92. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
17.4x
peer 20.4x · own history 17.7x
Premium
0.9x peer
1.0x its own history
Growth the price needs
-6%
our forecast 12%
Our fair value
$84.92
range $77.18 – $92.27
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is in the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fairfair — but weakening12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 6% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 12%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Utilities names rated strong grew net income 61% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=906).
72nd pctl · Utilities
Earnings quality
fragileOver the trailing year it converted 1.56x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Utilities names rated fragile grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=832).
19th pctl · Utilities
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
neutralEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Neutral12 analysts, 41% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.83 → $0.82 (-0.7% / 30d). 1 raised, 5 cut, 12 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 41% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 15.1% above current price.
Material events
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: utilities is in maturing (~3.2 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$84.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$217.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,315.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
lowas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 18d
Watch for Q2 non-GAAP Operating Earnings results
Why it matters: Earnings growth is a key priority. Results below expectations may signal ongoing struggles.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q2 non-GAAP Operating Earnings were lower than last quarter.
Disproves:Q2 non-GAAP Operating Earnings were higher than last quarter.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for PEG yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for utilities to grow revenue faster than 7% year over year.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for PEG and other Utilities names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like NEE, SO, and DUK keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Utilities sector momentum should keep lifting PEG and other Utilities names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If PEG raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-05), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If PEG cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-05), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like NEE, SO, and DUK start missing or guiding lower, the Utilities tailwind helping PEG and other Utilities names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-0310d agoItem 8.01
Other Events On June 3, 2026, Public Service Enterprise Group Incorporated (“PSEG”) completed a public offering of $500,000,000 aggregate principal amount of its 4.800% Senior Notes due 2031 (the “Notes”). The Notes were offered and sold by PSEG pursuant to a registration statement on Form S-3 (File No. 333-275509) (the “Registration Statement”) and the related Prospectus dated November 13, 2023 and Prospectus Supplement dated June 1, 2026. The Notes were issued pursuant to an underwriting ag…
Capital allocationneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-8.6 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.