Reading PDFS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PDFS free→Reading PDFS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PDFS free→NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been fairly steady and the capital stance is capital unfriendly. Earnings quality is mixed, and risk is elevated, while the sector backdrop is a tailwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 33% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, priced roughly in line with peer multiples. Key factors to watch include guidance changes from PDFS and the performance of sector bellwethers like SAP, CRM, and NOW. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $64.14. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $64 PDFS trades at 45× p/e, below its 62× p/e peer median. Our $48 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 32% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about 20%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated strong grew net income 73% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.37x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2831).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.25 → $0.26 (+4.0% / 30d). 4 raised, 0 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$257.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$531.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,465.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Positive operating income shows good cost management. It also shows the company is working to make more money.
Confirms:Operating income is positive and over $5M in Q2.
Disproves:Operating income falls back into a loss in Q2.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for PDFS yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, PDF Solutions, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release regarding its financial results and certain other information related to the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. The Company also posted on the Investors section of its website ( www.pdf.com ) a management report with regard to the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. Copies of the press release and management report are attached to this report as Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2, re…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Semiconductor Materials & Equipment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
PDFS PDF Solutions, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 44 of 100 | full | elevated |
ASML ASML Holding N.V. | — | — | moderate |
AMAT Applied Materials | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | full | elevated |
LRCX Lam Research | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 68 of 100 | full | elevated |
KLAC KLA Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 98 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1040).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
PDF Solutions aims to achieve a 20% annual revenue growth for the fiscal year 2026.
PDF Solutions is working towards achieving long-term target margins of 77% for gross margin and 27% for operating margin.
PDF Solutions is focused on expanding the market adoption of its Exensio and eProbe products.
Focus on increasing revenue through strategic initiatives and market expansion.
Enhance operating income through cost management and efficiency improvements.
Why it matters: This would signal a slowdown in PDF Solutions' growth strategy. It could raise concerns about market demand and execution.
Confirms:Q2 total revenue growth reported below 20% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 total revenue growth reported at or above 20% year over year.
Why it matters: Details on the debt issuance could affect the company's cash flow and financial flexibility. It will show how the company manages its capital.
Confirms one read:Debt issuance leads to improved cash flow and liquidity.
Confirms the other:Issuing debt can hurt cash flow or raise financial obligations a lot.
Why it matters: A gross profit margin over 70% shows strong pricing and good cost control. It means the company can make more money.
Confirms:Gross profit margin exceeds 70% in Q2.
Disproves:Gross profit margin drops below 65% in Q2.
Why it matters: Improving margins would show that PDF Solutions is on track to meet its long-term targets. This could boost investor confidence.
Confirms:Operating margins reported at or above 27% in Q2.
Disproves:Operating margins were below 25% in Q2.
Other Events. On May 13, 2026, PDF Solutions, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into an underwriting agreement (the “Underwriting Agreement”) with Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC, as representative of the several underwriters named therein (collectively, the “Underwriters”), and Advantest America, Inc. (the “Selling Stockholder”) in connection with (i) the offering, issuance and sale by the Company of 1,946,630 shares of the Company’s common stock, $0.00015 par value per share (the “Common Stock”), inclu…
Entry Into a Material Definitive Agreement. On April 23, 2026, PDF Solutions, Inc. (the “ Company ”) entered into a First Amendment to Credit Agreement (the “ Amendment ”), by and among the Company, the subsidiary guarantors party thereto, the lenders party thereto and Wells Fargo Bank, National Association, as administrative agent to the lenders. The Amendment amends the Credit Agreement, dated as of March 7, 2025, by and among the Company, the lenders and other parties party thereto from ti…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation Under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information in