Reading PCRX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PCRX free→Reading PCRX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PCRX free→NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, while risk is elevated and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 32% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. What it hinges on includes potential guidance changes and sector trends, particularly the performance of bellwethers like HLN, TEVA, and ZTS. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $22.99. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $23 PCRX trades at 9× p/e, below its 13× p/e peer median. Our $34 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 32% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 7%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
Over the trailing year it converted 27.89x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated robust grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=1703).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=842).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.71 → $0.65 (-8.1% / 30d). 1 raised, 6 cut, 7 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 57% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$148.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$364.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,961.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
As of June 12, 2026, the signal label changed, indicating a shift to a mildly favorable outlook. Risk fell, moving from an elevated level. The sector backdrop remained a headwind, and valuation was described as expensive. The earnings quality was noted as robust, while management was assessed as neutral.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Growth in EXPAREL sales is important for revenue goals in 2026.
Confirms:EXPAREL net product sales exceed $150 million in Q2 2026.
Disproves:EXPAREL net product sales fall below $140 million in Q2 2026.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for PCRX yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Amended and Restated 2014 Employee Stock Purchase Plan On June 9, 2026, Pacira BioSciences, Inc. (the “Company”) held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders (the “Annual Meeting”) in Parsippany, New Jersey and via live webcast online at www.cesonlineservices.com/pcrx26_vm, at which the Company’s stockholders approved the Amended and Restated 2014…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Pharmaceuticals.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
PCRX Pacira BioSciences, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 65 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
LLY Lilly (Eli) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
JNJ Johnson & Johnson | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 69 of 100 | expensive | low |
MRK Merck & Co. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
PFE Pfizer | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | fair | low |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Pacira aims to achieve total revenue between $745 million and $770 million for the fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue was $177.4 million in 2026-Q1, a 5% increase over 2025-Q1's $168.9 million. The trajectory shows progress towards the $745M to $770M target, but further growth is needed to meet the annual goal.
“The company is reiterating its full-year 2026 guidance: Total revenue of $745 million to $770 million.”
“The company is providing full-year 2026 financial guidance: Total revenue of $745 million to $770 million.”
Pacira aims to maintain a non-GAAP gross margin between 77% and 79% for 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The financials do not provide specific gross margin figures for 2026-Q1, making it difficult to assess progress. The recurring focus on this margin target suggests ongoing emphasis, but limited substantive delivery is visible this quarter.
“Non-GAAP gross margin of 77 percent to 79 percent.”
Pacira aims to achieve a non-GAAP net income of $24.5 million for the fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Non-GAAP net income was $24.5 million in 2026-Q1, aligning with the annual target. This indicates that the company is delivering on its stated priority for net income.
Why it matters: Confirming guidance is important for keeping investor trust and stock value.
Confirms one read:Q2 revenue guidance aligns with full-year target of $745M to $770M.
Confirms the other:Q2 revenue guidance falls below $745 million.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth drops, it may show bigger problems for Pacira's performance.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth reported below its median of 1% year over year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains above its median of 1% year over year.
Why it matters: Good results could make ZILRETTA the first approved treatment for shoulder pain.
Confirms:Topline results show ZILRETTA meets the main goal for shoulder osteoarthritis.
Disproves:Topline results show ZILRETTA does not meet the main goal.
Why it matters: Data from this study could impact future revenue and product pipeline strength.
Confirms one read:Positive data from PCRX-201 shows a big drop in knee pain from osteoarthritis.
Confirms the other:Data from PCRX-201 shows no big improvement in knee osteoarthritis pain.
and Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
“Non-GAAP gross margin of 77 to 79 percent.”
“Non-GAAP net income of $24.5 million, or $0.60 per share (basic and diluted).”
“Non-GAAP net income of $24.5 million, or $0.60 per share.”