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PBI
Pitney Bowes, Inc.NYSEIndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsSnapshot 2026-06-12
Intact
$17.32+1.05%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but the capital stance is capital unfriendly, and risk is elevated. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, PBI is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 43% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. This analysis is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Integrated Freight & Logistics
- Market cap
- $2.29B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1994-03-30
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-29
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $17.32. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryinexpensive
$30.63consensus
Range $23.78 – $35.47
vs price: -43% below
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$34.95consensus
Range $27.21 – $42.78
vs price: -50% below
Method agreement — · 4 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peerslow confidence
At $17 PBI trades at 12× p/e, below its 23× p/e peer median. Our $31 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $14–$15. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
11.5x
peer 23.5x · own history 14.2x
Premium
0.5x peer
0.8x its own history
Growth the price needs
-43%
our forecast -16%
Our fair value
$30.63
range $21.00 – $35.47
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is above the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
inexpensivecheap — quality intact12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 43% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -16%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
94th pctl · Industrials
Earnings quality
robustOver the trailing year it converted 2.65x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
83rd pctl · Industrials
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
NeutralEPS revised +3.7% / 30d, n=6for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.31 → $0.33 (+3.7% / 30d). 4 raised, 1 cut, 6 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 20% of analysts rate Buy.
Material events
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: industrials is in maturing, with decelerating (~3.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: by revenue growth.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: weakProvisional
- Capital allocation
- weak
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-12
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$124.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$357.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,828.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 14d
Watch for revenue stabilization in Q2
Why it matters: Stable revenue is important for growth. It shows the company is facing challenges.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q2 revenue shows no decline year over year and ideally grows by at least 5%.
Disproves:Q2 revenue declines year over year by more than 5%.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for PBI yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth speeding up in Industrials.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like UPS, FDX, and JBHT keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Industrials sector momentum should keep lifting PBI and other Industrials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for PBI and other Industrials names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
Downside triggers
- If PBI reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising (RAISED as of 2026-05-05), that's the worst kind of move: a credibility hit on top of the lower number. Stocks usually get punished disproportionately for this.
- If sector bellwethers like UPS, FDX, and JBHT start missing or guiding lower, the Industrials tailwind helping PBI and other Industrials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits PBI and other Industrials names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-1925d agoItem 1.01
ENTRY INTO A MATERIAL DEFINITIVE AGREEMENT On May 18, 2026 (the “ Amendment Effective Date ”), Pitney Bowes Inc. (the “ Company ”), and certain other subsidiaries of the Company, entered into an amendment (the “ Amendment ”) to its Credit Agreement, dated as of February 7, 2025 (as amended prior to the date hereof and as further amended by the Amendment, the “ Credit Agreement ”), among the Company, the Loan Parties party thereto, the Lenders and Issuing Banks party thereto and Bank of Americ…
Capital allocationneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-0.6 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.