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PAYX
PaychexNASDAQIndustrialsSoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-06-12
Intact
$100.63+1.37%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is neutral, and risk is elevated, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 30% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. Key factors to watch include any guidance cuts from PAYX and the performance of sector bellwethers like UBER and ADP. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Software - Application
- Market cap
- $35.57B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1995-03-24
- Next earnings
- 2026-06-24
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $100.63. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryinexpensive
$144.01consensus
Range $137.84 – $171.66
vs price: -30% below
Method agreement — · 8 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$221.16consensus
Range $203.75 – $270.54
vs price: -55% below
Method agreement — · 6 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peershigh confidence
At $101 PAYX trades at 19× p/e, below its 26× p/e peer median. Our $144 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
19.3x
peer 26.4x · own history 27.8x
Premium
0.7x peer
0.7x its own history
Growth the price needs
-30%
our forecast 19%
Our fair value
$144.01
range $137.65 – $169.94
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
inexpensivecheap — quality intact12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 30% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 19%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
95th pctl · Industrials
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.42x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=4440).
49th pctl · Industrials
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
Management & capital allocation
volatileEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Neutral15 analysts, 10% Buyfor period ending 2026-08-31
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $1.32 → $1.31 (-0.5% / 30d). 5 raised, 6 cut, 15 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 10% of analysts rate Buy.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: industrials is in maturing, with decelerating (~3.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: Growth by revenue growth · theme aerospace-recovery.headwind
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- strong
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$124.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$277.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,276.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 18d
Watch for Q4 EPS growth meeting 10% to 11%
Why it matters: Achieving this growth shows Paychex is on track with its profit goals for the year.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q4 EPS growth reported at 10% or higher compared to the previous year.
Disproves:Q4 EPS growth reported below 10%.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for PAYX yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth speeding up in Industrials.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like UBER, ADP, and PAYC keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Industrials sector momentum should keep lifting PAYX and other Industrials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If PAYX raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-03-25), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If PAYX cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-03-25), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like UBER, ADP, and PAYC start missing or guiding lower, the Industrials tailwind helping PAYX and other Industrials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits PAYX and other Industrials names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-03-252mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On March 25, 2026, Paychex, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release (the "Press Release") reporting its financial results for the three and nine months ended February 28, 2026. A copy of the Press Release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information provided pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, is being "furnished" herewith and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Secur…
Earnings preannouncementneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+4.6 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.