Reading PATK? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PATK free→Reading PATK? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PATK free→NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRecreational VehiclesSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is also neutral. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, PATK is typical in performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 23% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $86.70. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $87 the market pays 19× p/e — above the 15× p/e peer median but in line with its own 16× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $72 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $108–$150. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 20% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about -6%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=3804).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.02x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=3229).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.39 → $1.39 (+0.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 7 cut, 8 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 70% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$139.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$321.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,240.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Company momentum rose by 25.0 points (from -24.0 to 1.0).
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A bigger drop in RV revenue shows more problems in the RV market. This may hurt sales and profits.
Confirms:Q2 RV revenue declines more than 7% compared to Q2 2025.
Disproves:RV revenue declines less than 7% or shows growth compared to Q2 2025.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for PATK yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Other Events On May 14, 2026, the Board of Directors of Patrick Industries, Inc. declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.47 per share of common stock, which will be payable on June 8, 2026, to shareholders of record at the close of business on May 26, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and is incorporated herein by reference.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$108.00 – $150.00 (median $128.00) · 7 analysts · as of 2026-05-05
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Automotive Parts & Equipment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
PATK Patrick Industries, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 69 of 100 | full | elevated |
BWA BorgWarner | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 79 of 100 | full | moderate |
MOD Modine Manufacturing Co. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 49 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
APTV Aptiv | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | fair | moderate |
AUR Aurora Innovation Inc | — | — | elevated |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=646).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to maintain the quarterly cash dividend payout to shareholders.
Conclude discussions regarding a potential merger with LCI Industries.
Focus on organic growth through innovative and cost-effective full component solutions.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows financial health. It also shows a promise to give value to shareholders.
Confirms:The company declares a dividend payout of $0.47 per share in the next quarter.
Disproves:The company reduces or suspends the dividend payout in the next quarter.
Why it matters: News about the merger may change how the market sees Patrick Industries. It could also change their plans.
Confirms one read:A press release confirming a new agreement or terms for the merger with LCI Industries.
Confirms the other:A clear statement that no more talks will happen about the merger.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal a shift in the consumer discretionary sector. This could impact investor sentiment.
Confirms:Revenue growth reported below the median level for the sector.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains above the median level for the sector.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 30, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing operating results for the first quarter ended March 29, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference.
Regulation FD Disclosure On May 4, 2026, Patrick Industries, Inc. (NASDAQ: PATK) ("Patrick" or the "Company"), issued a press release confirming that the Company and LCI Industries (NYSE: LCII) have terminated discussions regarding a potential business combination. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and is incorporated herein by reference.