Reading OTTR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track OTTR free→Reading OTTR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track OTTR free→NASDAQUtilitiesConglomeratesSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits are not well backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been volatile, and the capital stance is capital unfriendly, which adds to the risk profile that is moderate. The sector backdrop is a headwind, but compared with sector peers, OTTR is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 21% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening, as recent financials or earnings quality are weakening. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $89.59. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $90 OTTR trades at 13× p/e, below its 19× p/e peer median. Our $113 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 21% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -2%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Utilities names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1203).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.49x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Utilities names rated fragile grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=832).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.53 → $1.50 (-2.3% / 30d). 1 raised, 2 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 2 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$81.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$210.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,270.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Keeping EPS guidance shows confidence in earnings. It helps build trust with investors.
Confirms:Management confirms EPS guidance remains within the range of $5.22 to $5.62.
Disproves:Management lowers EPS guidance to less than $5.22.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for OTTR yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. As previously reported, in 2024, putative federal class action lawsuits alleging violations of the antitrust laws were filed against Otter Tail Corporation and two subsidiaries (together, the “Company”), along with more than twenty other PVC pipe manufacturers. The actions were later consolidated as In re: PVC Pipe Antitrust Litigation (Case No. 1:24-cv-07639) in the United States District Court for the Northern District of Illinois (the “PVC Pipe A…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Electric Utilities.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
OTTR Otter Tail Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | fair | moderate |
SO Southern Company | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 68 of 100 | fair | low |
DUK Duke Energy | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | fair | low |
CEG Constellation Energy | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 60 of 100 | full | elevated |
AEP American Electric Power | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 43 of 100 | full | low |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by legal/regulatory items. Historically, Utilities names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLU
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to anticipate 2026 diluted earnings per share to be in the range of $5.22 to $5.62.
Continue to increase the dividend per share as part of capital allocation strategy.
Focus on increasing operating income as part of growth strategy.
Why it matters: The outcome of this lawsuit could impact Otter Tail's financial health and reputation. Investors need to know how serious the claims are.
Confirms:Any court ruling or settlement that hurts Otter Tail's finances.
Disproves:A ruling in favor of Otter Tail or a dismissal of the case.
Why it matters: The result of this lawsuit could affect finances and how investors feel.
Confirms:The company gives a positive update about a good outcome in the lawsuit.
Disproves:The company shares bad news about the lawsuit.
Why it matters: A dividend increase shows financial health. It shows a commitment to returning cash to shareholders.
Confirms:The company announces an increase in dividend per share.
Disproves:The company maintains or cuts the current dividend per share.
Why it matters: The utilities sector is growing up. Faster revenue growth could help Otter Tail.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth speeds up again, reaching over 5%.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth slows down or stays below 5%.
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. As previously reported in a Form 8-K filed by Otter Tail Corporation on March 23, 2026 (the “March 8-K”), Otter Tail Power Company ("OTP”), a wholly owned subsidiary of Otter Tail Corporation, entered into a Note Purchase Agreement (the “Note Purchase Agreement”) on March 19, 2026, with the purchasers named therein (the “Purchasers”), pursuant to which OTP agreed to issue to the…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 4, 2026 Otter Tail Corporation issued a press release announcing its consolidated financial results for the first quarter of 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1. The information in this Item 2.02 (including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto) shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Sec…