Reading ORA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ORA free→Reading ORA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ORA free→NYSEUtilitiesUtilities - RenewableSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. However, the sector backdrop is a headwind, and risk is moderate. Peer multiples imply a price about 151% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. Key factors to watch include any potential guidance cuts from ORA and the performance of sector bellwethers like CWEN and MWH, which could influence the stock's trajectory. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $138.16. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $138 the market pays 49× p/e — above the 19× p/e peer median but in line with its own 48× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $55 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $126–$152. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 151% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 31%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Utilities names rated strong grew net income 61% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=906).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.49x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Utilities names rated robust grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=832).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.27 → $0.25 (-5.6% / 30d). 1 raised, 8 cut, 10 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 67% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 8.0% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$123.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$257.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,005.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Confidence changed from 'high' to 'medium'.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Keeping dividend payments shows financial health and care for shareholders. It affects how investors feel.
Confirms:Confirmation of the quarterly dividend payment of $0.12 per share on June 3, 2026.
Disproves:Announcement of a dividend cut or suspension prior to the payment date.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ORA yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 6, 2026 Ormat Technologies, Inc. (the “Registrant”) reported its earnings for its fourth fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the Registrant's press release containing this information is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information furnished pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$126.00 – $152.00 (median $142.00) · 7 analysts · as of 2026-05-18
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Renewable Electricity.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ORA Ormat Technologies | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 56 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CWEN Clearway Energy, Inc. (Class C) | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 12 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
MWH Solv Energy Inc | — | — | moderate |
CWEN-A Clearway Energy, Inc. (Class A) | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 5 of 100 | — | low |
FLNC Fluence Energy, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 25 of 100 | fair | elevated |
Not enough signal yet.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLU
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue advancing Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) strategy with technology and commercial development.
Focus on expanding the Energy Storage segment, which showed significant revenue growth.
Focus on securing new Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) to enhance long-term visibility and revenue.
Continue to maintain quarterly dividend payments as part of capital allocation strategy.
Focus on increasing revenue through strategic initiatives and market expansion.
Why it matters: Energy Storage is a key growth area. Continued growth shows strong market demand and operational success.
Confirms:Energy Storage revenue growth exceeding 100% year over year in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Energy Storage revenue growth falls below 50% year over year in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Stable dividends show commitment to returning value to shareholders. This can attract more investors.
Confirms:Dividend per share remains at $0.12 for the next quarter.
Disproves:Dividend per share is cut below $0.12.
Why it matters: Better operating income means lower costs and more efficiency. This is key for growth.
Confirms:Operating income goes up by 15% or more from the last quarter.
Disproves:Operating income goes up by less than 5% from the last quarter.
Why it matters: If the sector grows faster, Ormat could earn more money. This matters for performance.
Confirms one read:Sector revenue growth exceeds 5% year over year.
Confirms the other:Sector revenue growth falls below 3% year over year.
Why it matters: Exceeding 10% growth would show strong momentum in revenue growth efforts. This is key for investor confidence.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported above 10% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth reported below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Securing new PPAs is key for revenue growth and long-term visibility. More contracts signal strong demand.
Confirms:Announcement of at least two new PPAs totaling over 100 MW within the next quarter.
Disproves:No new PPAs announced in the next quarter.