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O
Realty IncomeNYSEReal EstateReit - RetailSnapshot 2026-06-12
Intact
$62.72+1.31%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. However, risk is low, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with the company trading below typical levels compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 3% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, quality intact. Key factors to watch include any potential guidance cuts and the performance of sector bellwethers. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Real Estate
- Industry
- Reit - Retail
- Market cap
- $57.12B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1995-11-14
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-03
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $62.72. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$64.49consensus
Range $54.98 – $86.74
vs price: -3% below
Method agreement — · 6 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$104.53consensus
Range $83.55 – $148.11
vs price: -40% below
Method agreement — · 4 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Durable premiumlow confidence
At $63 the market pays 50× p/e — above the 18× p/e peer median but in line with its own 51× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $66 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $66–$69. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
50.1x
peer 17.9x · own history 50.7x
Premium
2.8x peer
1.0x its own history
Growth the price needs
-5%
our forecast 13%
Our fair value
$66.25
range $53.74 – $84.45
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is in the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fairfair — quality intact12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 5% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 13%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated strong grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=1506).
86th pctl · Real Estate
Earnings quality
robustOver the trailing year it converted 3.61x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated robust grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=1399).
79th pctl · Real Estate
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
- real (inflation-adjusted) rates: This stock behaves like a long-duration asset — tends to fall when real rates rise.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
BearishEPS revised -6.0% / 30d, n=1for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.43 → $0.40 (-6.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 1 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 33% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 12.6% above current price.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: real estate is in maturing, with decelerating (~1.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: weak
- Capital allocation
- weak
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- weak
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$71.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$160.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,147.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
lowas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- Either wayHigh confidenceMonthsactive 18d
Watch for Q2 AFFO per share guidance changes
Why it matters: Changes in AFFO guidance reflect the company's ability to generate cash flow. This impacts dividends and growth plans.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms one read:Management raises the AFFO per share guidance above $4.44 for 2026.
Confirms the other:Management lowers the AFFO per share guidance below $4.38 for 2026.
Earnings call
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for O yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for impact of upcoming economic reports on Real Estate
- Watch for revenue growth across major REITs to re-accelerate
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for O and other Real Estate names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like SPG, KIM, and REG keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Real Estate sector momentum should keep lifting O and other Real Estate names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
Downside triggers
- If O reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising (RAISED as of 2026-05-06), that's the worst kind of move: a credibility hit on top of the lower number. Stocks usually get punished disproportionately for this.
- If sector bellwethers like SPG, KIM, and REG start missing or guiding lower, the Real Estate tailwind helping O and other Real Estate names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If O misses again next quarter like this past one (a solid miss of -19% on the 2026-03-31 print), expect continued pressure. The Street usually keeps walking estimates down after consecutive misses.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-061mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 6, 2026, Realty Income Corporation (the “Company”) issued a press release setting forth its results of operations for the three months ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. This information, including the information contained in the press release, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended…
Earnings preannouncementnegative
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-9.9 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.