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NWSA
News Corp (Class A)NASDAQCommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-06-12
Intact
$25.68-2.34%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong. Earnings quality is neutral. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive changes. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, NWSA is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 47% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. Rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. Watch for signals from sector bellwethers like NFLX and DIS. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Communication Services
- Industry
- Entertainment
- Market cap
- $14.32B
- Employees
- 22,300
- IPO date
- 2013-09-20
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-04
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $25.68. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfull
$19.14consensus
Range $17.88 – $19.78
vs price: +34% above
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$32.46consensus
Range $23.13 – $37.11
vs price: -21% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Durable premiummedium confidence
At $26 the market pays 25× p/e — above the 19× p/e peer median but in line with its own 27× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $19 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
25.2x
peer 18.5x · own history 27.0x
Premium
1.4x peer
0.9x its own history
Growth the price needs
36%
our forecast 3%
Our fair value
$18.91
range $17.20 – $19.76
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fullexpensive — growth-justified12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 36% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Communication Services names rated strong grew net income 63% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=701).
93rd pctl · Communication Services
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 2.67x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Communication Services names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=690).
55th pctl · Communication Services
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
volatileEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Bearish3 analysts, 88% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.24 → $0.23 (-2.8% / 30d). 1 raised, 2 cut, 3 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 88% of analysts rate Buy.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: communication services is in declining, with may be transitioning (~0.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: Mature by revenue growth · theme generative-AI.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$123.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$237.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,781.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- label change · valuation_labelsmall change
Valuation label changed from 'expensive' to 'full'.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- Either wayHigh confidenceMonthsactive 14d
Watch for Q2 earnings report on August 4th
Why it matters: The earnings report will provide insights into revenue and profit trends.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms one read:The earnings report shows revenue growth that is better than expected.
Confirms the other:The earnings report shows revenue growth that is worse than expected.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for NWSA yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth cooling below 10% YoY
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for NWSA and other Communication Services names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like NFLX, DIS, and WBD keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Communication Services sector momentum should keep lifting NWSA and other Communication Services names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If NWSA beats again next quarter like it did this past one (a beat of +5% on the 2026-03-31 print), the momentum tends to extend, with Street estimates ratcheting up and the stock typically following.
Downside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like NFLX, DIS, and WBD start missing or guiding lower, the Communication Services tailwind helping NWSA and other Communication Services names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits NWSA and other Communication Services names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-01-284mo agoItem 8.01
Other Events. As previously reported, under News Corporation's (the "Company's") stock repurchase program (the "Repurchase Program"), the Company is authorized to acquire from time to time up to $1 billion in the aggregate of the Company's outstanding shares of Class A common stock and Class B common stock. Under the rules of the Australian Securities Exchange (the "ASX"), the Company is required to provide to the ASX, on a daily basis, disclosure of transactions pursuant to the Repurchase Pr…
Capital allocationpositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+2.6 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.