Reading NVR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NVR free→Reading NVR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NVR free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been steady, and risk is moderate. The sector backdrop is a headwind, which may affect NVR compared with sector peers, where its performance is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 14% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $6374.93. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $6,375 NVR trades at 16× p/e, below its 18× p/e peer median. Our $7,296 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $6,600–$8,100. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 13% below a flat-multiple fair value, in line with our forecast of about -9%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Not enough signal yet.
Over the trailing year it converted 1.01x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated fragile grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $90.80 → $90.98 (+0.2% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 6 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 29% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$112.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$261.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,488.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The Q2 earnings report will show if NVR can recover from the recent earnings miss. Investors will look for signs of improvement.
Confirms one read:Q2 earnings report shows revenue growth above 5% year over year.
Confirms the other:Q2 earnings report shows revenue growth below 0% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for NVR yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 22, 2026, NVR, Inc. issued a press release reporting its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of this press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1. The information contained in this Current Report shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933,…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$6600.00 – $8100.00 (median $7700.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-04-23
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Homebuilding.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
NVR NVR, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 43 of 100 | fair | moderate |
DHI D. R. Horton | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 53 of 100 | fair | moderate |
PHM PulteGroup | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 60 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
LEN Lennar | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 29 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
TOL Toll Brothers | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 45 of 100 | full | moderate |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated stable grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=483).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing new home orders to drive future revenue growth.
Address pricing pressure and higher lot costs to manage gross profit margin.
Aim to reduce the cancellation rate of new home orders to improve stability.
Why it matters: The Consumer Discretionary sector is showing signs of change. Revenue growth trends will impact NVR's performance.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth drops below its median for two consecutive months.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains above its median for two consecutive months.
Why it matters: New home orders are key for future revenue. Growth signals demand is improving.
Confirms:New home orders in Q2 increase year over year by more than 5%.
Disproves:New home orders in Q2 decrease year over year or grow less than 5%.
Why it matters: Gross profit margin is important for making money. A rise means better cost control.
Confirms:Gross profit margin in Q2 improves to above 20%.
Disproves:Gross profit margin in Q2 stays below 19%.
Why it matters: A high cancellation rate can hurt future sales. It shows buyer confidence.
Confirms:Cancellation rate in Q2 stays below 15%.
Disproves:Cancellation rate in Q2 rises above 15%.
Compensatory stock options were granted to executive officers.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 28, 2026, NVR, Inc. issued a press release reporting its financial results for the quarter and year to date periods ended December 31, 2025. A copy of this press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1. The information contained in this Current Report shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the…