Reading NTAP? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NTAP free→Reading NTAP? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NTAP free→NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been steady, and it has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop is a tailwind, with performance compared to sector peers being typical. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $161.61. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $162 NTAP trades at 21× p/e, below its 22× p/e peer median. Our $162 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $150–$200. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 0% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 68% for the rest of the cohort, n=3704).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.27x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated fragile grew net income 46% of the time over the next year (vs 65% for the rest of the cohort, n=2129).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.84 → $2.11 (+14.4% / 30d). 12 raised, 0 cut, 16 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 1 downgrade / 30d, 12 maintained. 40% of analysts rate Buy.
6 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 5.1% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 3 guided quarters · 23.2% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$133.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$292.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,483.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation rose by 30.7 points (from 18.9 to 49.6).
Valuation label changed from 'fair' to 'full'.
The valuation changed. It rose to a label of "full." Risk remained moderate. Earnings quality is fragile. Management is stable. The sector backdrop is a tailwind.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If it drops below this level, it shows poor cost management. This would hurt profits.
Confirms:Gross margins reported below 60% in the next earnings report.
Disproves:Gross margins remain at or above 60%.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for NTAP yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 28, 2026, NetApp, Inc. ("NetApp" or the "Company") issued a press release reporting financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year ended April 24, 2026. The press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1, to this Current Report. NetApp is making reference to non-GAAP financial information in both the press release and the conference call. A reconciliation of these non-GAAP financial measures to the comparable GAAP financial…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$150.00 – $200.00 (median $185.00) · 6 analysts · as of 2026-06-02
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
NTAP NetApp | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | full | moderate |
AAPL Apple Inc | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
SNDK Sandisk | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 75 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
DELL Dell Technologies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | full | elevated |
STX Seagate Technology | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Information Technology names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=797).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on sustaining high gross margins through cost management and operational efficiency.
Drive revenue growth through strategic initiatives and market expansion.
Maintain operating margins through disciplined cost management and efficiency.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is crucial for NetApp's future. Falling short signals trouble in meeting goals.
Confirms:Quarterly revenue may be less than $7.325B.
Disproves:Quarterly revenue exceeds $7.575B.
Why it matters: News about the buyback program may show that management trusts the stock.
Confirms:They announced completed buybacks of more than $500 million.
Disproves:No updates or buybacks reported in the next quarter.
Why it matters: This would signal a slowdown in NetApp's growth and affect investor confidence.
Confirms:Q1 revenue growth reported below 5% year over year.
Disproves:Q1 revenue growth remains above 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Margins are key for NetApp's profitability. A drop below this level signals deeper issues.
Confirms:Operating margins may drop below 23.3% next quarter.
Disproves:Operating margins remain above 23.3% in the next quarter.
Other Events. On May 21, 2026, the Board of Directors of the Company authorized the repurchase of up to an additional $1.0 billion of the Company’s common stock, with no expiration date. Stock repurchases may be effected through open market repurchases in compliance with Rule 10b-18 under the Exchange Act, including through the use of trading plans intended to qualify under Rule 10b5-1 under the Exchange Act, privately-negotiated transactions, accelerated stock repurchase plans, block purchas…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 26, 2026, NetApp, Inc. ("NetApp" or the "Company") issued a press release reporting financial results for the third quarter of fiscal year 2026, ended January 23, 2026. The press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1, to this Current Report. NetApp is making reference to non-GAAP financial information in both the press release and the conference call. A reconciliation of these non-GAAP financial measures to the comparable GAAP…