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NRG
NRG EnergyNYSEUtilitiesUtilities - Independent Power ProducersSnapshot 2026-06-12
Watch· this month
$125.47+1.43%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is weak, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is robust, and the company has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with NRG trading below typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Utilities
- Industry
- Utilities - Independent Power Producers
- Market cap
- $27.42B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1997-08-12
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-06
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $125.47. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$126.83consensus
Range $103.98 – $339.02
vs price: -1% below
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$510.37consensus
Range $400.39 – $598.48
vs price: -75% below
Method agreement — · 4 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Aligned with peerslow confidence
At $125 NRG trades at 21× p/e, in line with its 20× p/e peer median. Our $127 fair value reflects that, low confidence. Analysts: $153–$225. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
20.7x
peer 20.4x · own history 13.8x
Premium
1.0x peer
1.5x its own history
Growth the price needs
-1%
our forecast 5%
Our fair value
$126.83
range $103.98 – $338.96
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fairfair — but weakening12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 1% below a flat-multiple fair value, in line with our forecast of about 5%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
weakOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Utilities names rated weak grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=906).
24th pctl · Utilities
Earnings quality
robustOver the trailing year it converted 3.72x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Utilities names rated robust grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=832).
91st pctl · Utilities
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
volatileEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
BullishEPS revised -4.2% / 30d, n=5for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $1.78 → $1.70 (-4.2% / 30d). 2 raised, 1 cut, 5 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 82% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 19.2% above current price.
Material events
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Transition story with positive analyst positioning (often a turnaround setup).
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklyManagement scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: weak
- Capital allocation
- weak
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- weak
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- weak
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$190.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$478.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,444.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 7d
Watch for Q2 earnings results on August 6, 2026
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if NRG can meet its financial guidance. A miss would raise concerns.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q2 earnings report shows revenue growth of at least 5% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 earnings report shows revenue growth below 5% year over year.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-06-111d agoAxios
New power plant supports growth and financial guidance.
Strongly reinforcesConfirmed
This sector is also watching
- Watch for utilities to grow revenue faster than 7% year over year.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for NRG and other Utilities names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like CEG, VST, and TLN keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Utilities sector momentum should keep lifting NRG and other Utilities names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If NRG raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-06), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If NRG cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-06), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like CEG, VST, and TLN start missing or guiding lower, the Utilities tailwind helping NRG and other Utilities names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-061mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 6, 2026, NRG Energy, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report on Form 8-K and is hereby incorporated by reference.
Earnings preannouncementnegative
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-8.3 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.