Reading NJR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NJR free→Reading NJR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NJR free→NYSEUtilitiesUtilities - Regulated GasSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but the sector backdrop is a headwind. Earnings quality is neutral, and risk is moderate, while management's recent track record has been steady. Peer multiples imply a price about 15% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. The outlook hinges on whether NJR can maintain its earnings momentum and how sector trends evolve. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $55.09. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $55 NJR trades at 16× p/e, below its 19× p/e peer median. Our $65 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 15% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -2%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Utilities names rated strong grew net income 61% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=906).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.88x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Utilities names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1075).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, the broad stock market, Fed net liquidity.
Not enough signal yet.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.06 → $0.04 (-42.2% / 30d). 0 raised, 2 cut, 5 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 75% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 8.3% above current price.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$79.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$174.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $868.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Signal changed from 'mixed' to 'mild_favorable'.
The signal label changed to "mild favorable." Risk fell. The sector backdrop remained a headwind. Valuation is described as cheap, indicating that peer multiples imply a price about 15% above where it trades.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Higher EPS guidance would show stronger earnings growth and boost investor confidence.
Confirms:Management says EPS will be higher for fiscal 2026.
Disproves:EPS guidance remains unchanged or is lowered for fiscal 2026.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for NJR yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section and shall not be deemed to be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Gas Utilities.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
NJR New Jersey Resources | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 87 of 100 | fair | moderate |
ATO Atmos Energy | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 73 of 100 | fair | low |
UGI UGI Corp | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
NFG National Fuel Gas | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 97 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
SWX Southwest Gas Corp | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 84 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLU
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
NJR has increased its fiscal 2026 EPS guidance due to strong performance in Energy Services.
NJR continues to focus on maintaining its dividend growth as part of its capital allocation strategy.
NJR aims to enhance cash from operations to support its financial stability and growth initiatives.
Why it matters: Faster revenue growth in the utility sector could help New Jersey Resources.
Confirms one read:Utility sector revenue growth speeds up again, above 5%.
Confirms the other:Utility sector revenue growth slows down below 5%.
Why it matters: A strong earnings report would support the positive sentiment from the recent earnings beat.
Confirms:Q2 earnings results show a year-over-year increase in earnings per share greater than 10%.
Disproves:Q2 earnings results show a decline in earnings per share year over year.
Why it matters: Changes in unemployment claims can affect how much people spend and the demand for utilities.
Confirms one read:Weekly unemployment claims drop below 200,000.
Confirms the other:Weekly unemployment claims rise above 300,000.
Why it matters: Better cash flow shows stronger operations and helps growth plans.
Confirms:Cash from operations has a big increase compared to past quarters.
Disproves:Cash from operations declines or remains flat.
Why it matters: Growing dividends show the company is doing well and cares for shareholders.
Confirms:Management says the dividend payout will increase.
Disproves:Management announces a freeze or cut in the dividend payout.