Reading NDSN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NDSN free→Reading NDSN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NDSN free→NASDAQIndustrialsSpecialty Industrial MachinerySnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong. Earnings quality is neutral. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent changes. Risk is low, but the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, its earnings yield is about typical for the sector. Peer multiples imply a price about 7% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. This hinges on whether NDSN cuts guidance after recently raising it. It also depends on sector bellwethers like GEV, ETN, and PH.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $288.21. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $288 NDSN trades at 28× p/e, in line with its 24× p/e peer median. Our $270 fair value reflects that, medium confidence. Analysts: $300–$345. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 7% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 13%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.44x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=4440).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $3.04 → $3.06 (+0.6% / 30d). 6 raised, 1 cut, 8 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 4 maintained. 56% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 18.1% above current price.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$85.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$196.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,415.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Signal changed from 'mixed' to 'mild_favorable'.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Stable EPS guidance shows strong profit expectations. It gives investors confidence in earnings.
Confirms:Management says EPS guidance is the same or has gone up.
Disproves:Management lowers EPS guidance or gives a bad outlook.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for NDSN yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or Obligations under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant On June 2, 2026 (the “Effective Date”), Nordson Corporation (the “Company”) established a new commercial paper program (the “Program”), under which the Company may issue unsecured commercial paper notes (the “Notes”) on a private placement basis up to a maximum aggregate amount outstanding at any time of $1.2 billion. On the Effective Date, the Company also entered into commercial p…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$300.00 – $345.00 (median $325.00) · 7 analysts · as of 2026-05-29
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
NDSN Nordson Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 51 of 100 | full | low |
PH Parker Hannifin | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 76 of 100 | full | moderate |
ITW Illinois Tool Works | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 92 of 100 | fair | moderate |
GWW W. W. Grainger | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 73 of 100 | full | moderate |
DOV Dover Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | fair | low |
6 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated volatile grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=840).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 4 guided quarters · 2.0% avg surprise
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Nordson aims to increase its full year revenue guidance for fiscal 2026.
Nordson is committed to maintaining strong EPS guidance for fiscal 2026.
Nordson is focusing on maintaining stable operating income levels.
Why it matters: If the industrial sector grows again, it could help Nordson's results and future.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth speeds up again, moving back toward its highs.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth keeps slowing down or stays the same.
Why it matters: Raising revenue guidance would show confidence in future growth. It signals strong demand.
Confirms:Management says full year revenue guidance is higher than before.
Disproves:Management maintains or lowers full year revenue guidance.
Why it matters: Stable operating income means the company controls costs well. This affects overall profits.
Confirms one read:Operating income is stable or better than in previous quarters.
Confirms the other:Operating income goes down or becomes less stable.
Why it matters: Stable operating income shows the company is managing costs well, which is key for long-term health.
Confirms one read:Operating income in Q2 results does not drop from the last quarter.
Confirms the other:Operating income in Q2 results drops compared to the last quarter.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 20, 2026 , Nordson Corporation issued a press release relating to its results of operations for the second quarter of fiscal 2026. A copy is attached as Exhibit 99.1.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 18, 2026 , Nordson Corporation issued a press release relating to its results of operations for the first quarter of fiscal 2026. A copy is attached as Exhibit 99.1.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On January 30, 2026, Nordson Corporation (the “Company”) entered into an Amended and Restated Credit Agreement (the “Revolving Credit Agreement”) with its subsidiary, Nordson Engineering GmbH, a private limited liability company organized and existing under the laws of Germany, registered with the commercial register of the local court of Lüneburg under number HRB 999 (“Nordson GmbH”), with Wells Fargo Bank, National Association, as Administrative A…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation Under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of the Registrant. The description contained under