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NCLH
Norwegian Cruise Line HoldingsNYSEConsumer DiscretionaryTravel ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-12
Intact
$19.43+1.94%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits, but risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 52% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. Key factors to watch include whether NCLH reverses course and raises guidance next quarter, as well as trends among sector bellwethers like BKNG and ABNB. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Consumer Discretionary
- Industry
- Travel Services
- Market cap
- $8.65B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2011-07-15
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-30
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $19.43. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryinexpensive
$40.66consensus
Range $32.43 – $41.19
vs price: -52% below
Method agreement — · 6 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$29.26consensus
Range $23.41 – $40.53
vs price: -34% below
Method agreement — · 4 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearfair
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peerslow confidence
At $19 NCLH trades at 9× p/e, below its 18× p/e peer median. Our $41 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $14–$30. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
8.8x
peer 18.3x · own history 10.6x
Premium
0.5x peer
0.8x its own history
Growth the price needs
-53%
our forecast —
Our fair value
$41.02
range $32.44 – $41.87
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is above the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
inexpensivecheap — quality intact12-month view
What's priced in
The price sits about 53% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=3804).
51st pctl · Consumer Discretionary
Earnings quality
robustOver the trailing year it converted 3.91x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated robust grew net income 65% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
84th pctl · Consumer Discretionary
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
volatileEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
BearishEPS revised -24.8% / 30d, n=20for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.51 → $0.38 (-24.8% / 30d). 0 raised, 18 cut, 20 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 4 maintained. 50% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
3 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 11.0% above current price.
Material events
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: consumer discretionary is in (~0.2 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- weak
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 43.8% avg surprise
as of 2026-06-12
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$261.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$480.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,510.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 18d
Watch for Q2 2026 Net Yield decline worse than -3.6%
Why it matters: A bigger drop would mean worse demand. This would hurt revenue growth.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q2 2026 Net Yield on a Constant Currency basis declines more than -3.6%.
Disproves:Net Yield decline is less than -3.6% or shows improvement.
Earnings call
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for NCLH yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for consumer revenue growth dropping below median
- Watch for changes in unemployment claims on June 4
- Watch for retail sales data on June 17
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If NCLH reverses course and raises guidance next quarter (came in LOWERED as of 2026-05-29), that's a sharp positive shift. The Street usually rewards a 'crisis averted' bounce-back.
- If sector bellwethers like BKNG, ABNB, and RCL keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Consumer Discretionary sector momentum should keep lifting NCLH and other Consumer Discretionary names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for NCLH and other Consumer Discretionary names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
Downside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like BKNG, ABNB, and RCL start missing or guiding lower, the Consumer Discretionary tailwind helping NCLH and other Consumer Discretionary names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits NCLH and other Consumer Discretionary names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-2915d agoItem 8.01
Other Events. On May 29, 2026, NCL Corporation Ltd. (“NCLC”), a subsidiary of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (“NCLH”), elected to irrevocably fix the Settlement Method to Cash Settlement for all exchanges of its (i) 1.125% Exchangeable Senior Notes due 2027 (the “1.125% Notes”), issued pursuant to an indenture, dated as of November 19, 2021, by and among NCLC, as issuer, NCLH, as guarantor, and U.S. Bank Trust Company, National Association (as successor to U.S. Bank National Association)…
Capital allocationneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
About the same as last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.