Reading NBIX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NBIX free→Reading NBIX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NBIX free→NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is neutral, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, indicating challenges in the broader market. Peer multiples imply a price about 11% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. Key factors to watch include guidance changes from NBIX and the performance of sector bellwethers like HLN, TEVA, and ZTS. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $159.76. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $160 the market pays 23× p/e — above the 16× p/e peer median but in line with its own 38× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $189 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Analysts: $140–$230. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 15% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 28%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.29x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=2269).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.92 → $2.11 (+9.9% / 30d). 11 raised, 2 cut, 14 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 86% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 37.2% above current price.
3 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$117.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$291.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,090.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth shows that recent acquisitions and strategies are working.
Confirms:Revenue growth reported above 30% year over year in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Revenue growth drops below 30% year over year in Q2 2026.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for NBIX yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
The Offer and related withdrawal rights expired as scheduled at one minute following 11:59 p.m. Eastern time on May 15, 2026 (such date and time, the “ Expiration Date ”). Purchaser was advised by Equiniti Trust Company, LLC, the depositary for the Offer, that as of the Expiration Date, a total of 46,356,114 Soleno Shares had been validly tendered (and not validly withdrawn) pursuant to the Offer, representing approximately 88.9% of the issued and outstanding Soleno Shares as of the Expiratio…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$140.00 – $230.00 (median $192.00) · 13 analysts · as of 2026-06-02
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Biotechnology.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
NBIX Neurocrine Biosciences | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | fair | moderate |
ABBV AbbVie | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 79 of 100 | full | low |
AMGN Amgen | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 75 of 100 | full | moderate |
GILD Gilead Sciences | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 96 of 100 | fair | moderate |
VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Health Care names rated volatile grew net income 43% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=600).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Finalize the acquisition of Soleno Therapeutics to expand Neurocrine's rare disease portfolio.
Focus on delivering strong, sustainable growth for INGREZZA and CRENESSITY.
Establish a $1 billion senior secured revolving credit facility to optimize capital structure.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show revenue growth and how the company is doing.
Confirms one read:Q2 earnings report shows revenue growth and positive guidance.
Confirms the other:Q2 earnings report shows revenue decline or negative guidance.
Why it matters: Growth in INGREZZA sales is key for reaching the yearly revenue goal.
Confirms:Q2 2026 INGREZZA net sales exceed $675 million.
Disproves:Q2 2026 INGREZZA net sales fall below $650 million.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal challenges in the market or company performance.
Confirms:Revenue growth is under 10% year-over-year in the next quarters.
Disproves:Revenue growth stays above 10% year-over-year.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. The information set forth in
Regulation FD Disclosure. On May 18, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing the closing of the Merger, a copy of which is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Report and incorporated by reference herein. The information in this Item 7.01, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “ Exchange Act ”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section and will not be incorp…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. On May 14, 2026 (the “ Closing Date ”), the Company entered into a credit agreement (the “ Credit Agreement ”) with JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., as administrative agent and collateral agent (in such capacities, the “ Agent ”), and the lenders party thereto. The Credit Agreement provides for a five-year, $1.0 billion senior secured revolving credit facility (the “ Revolving Credit F…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026, Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. announced its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. The full text of the press release issued in connection with the announcement is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. In accordance with General Instruction B.2 of Form 8-K, the information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18…