Reading NBHC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NBHC free→Reading NBHC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NBHC free→NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits are not well supported by cash. Management's recent track record has been neutral, and risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop presents a headwind, with NBHC compared to sector peers being below typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 9% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment hinges on whether NBHC cuts guidance on the next call, as that could lead to a meaningful negative impact. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $43.74. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $44 NBHC trades at 14× p/e, in line with its 12× p/e peer median. Our $40 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 9% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about -32%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=3730).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.62x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated fragile grew net income 49% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.81 → $0.81 (+0.1% / 30d). 3 raised, 1 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 75% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$86.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$240.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,441.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If EPS goes over $1.00, it shows strong earnings growth. This would support management's plan.
Confirms:Q4 EPS reported above $1.00.
Disproves:Q4 EPS reported below $1.00.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for NBHC yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Other Events . On May 7, 2026, the Board of Directors of National Bank Holdings Corporation (the “Company”) declared a cash dividend on the Company’s Class A common stock (“Common Stock”) of thirty-two cents ($0.32) per issued and outstanding share of Common Stock. The cash dividend will be payable on June 15, 2026 to shareholders of record at the close of business on May 29, 2026. All subsequent dividends are subject to review and approval by the Company’s Board of Directors in its discretio…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
NBHC National Bank Holdings Corporation | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 23 of 100 | full | moderate |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims to prudently grow earnings and achieve over $1.00 EPS in the fourth quarter.
Management expects a strong EPS accretion of approximately 17% for the fiscal year 2026.
Why it matters: If EPS grows by about 17%, it shows good earnings growth. This means the company is doing well.
Confirms:FY 2026 EPS growth reported at or above 17%.
Disproves:FY 2026 EPS growth reported below 17%.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth could signal a broader slowdown affecting NBHC's performance.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth reported below its median.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains above its median.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the bank's performance is improving or declining. This is key for investors.
Confirms one read:Earnings per share (EPS) exceeds $0.32, showing strong performance.
Confirms the other:EPS is below $0.32. This shows weaker performance.
Why it matters: Changes in dividends can show financial health. They also show management's confidence in future earnings.
Confirms one read:Board announces an increase in the dividend payout from $0.32.
Confirms the other:The board cuts the dividend from $0.32. This may mean financial problems.
Results of Operations and Financial Conditions. * On April 21, 2026, National Bank Holdings Corporation (“NBHC”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the full text of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and is incorporated herein by reference.
Shareholders approved an amended and restated incentive plan.