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NATL
NCR AtleosNASDAQFinancialsSoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-06-12
Watch· this month
$44.27+0.23%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with NATL trading below typical levels compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 8% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. The outlook hinges on guidance changes and sector trends, particularly the performance of key sector bellwethers. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Financials
- Industry
- Software - Application
- Market cap
- $3.25B
- Employees
- 20,000
- IPO date
- 2023-09-05
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $44.27. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$48.17consensus
Range $21.82 – $65.69
vs price: -8% below
Method agreement — · 8 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$83.73consensus
Range $70.91 – $154.98
vs price: -47% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peersmedium confidence
At $44 NATL trades at 11× p/e, below its 13× p/e peer median. Our $48 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
10.6x
peer 12.6x · own history 10.6x
Premium
0.8x peer
1.0x its own history
Growth the price needs
-8%
our forecast —
Our fair value
$48.26
range $21.97 – $65.83
WhyValuation methods disagree
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fairfair12-month view
What's priced in
The price sits about 8% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Compared to peers
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
33rd pctl · Financials
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.32x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=4725).
55th pctl · Financials
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
Not enough signal yet.
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bearishEPS revised -15.0% / 30d, n=2for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $1.15 → $0.97 (-15.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 2 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: financials is in growth, with decelerating (~3.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: Growth by revenue growth · theme capital-markets/rates.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Provisional
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- weak
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-12
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$63.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$295.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,531.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- label change · signal_labelmoderate change
Signal changed from 'mixed' to 'cautious'.
The signal changed to cautious. Risk fell. The sector backdrop remains a headwind. Valuation is described as expensive.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 14d
Watch for Q2 revenue growth below 7%
Why it matters: A slowdown in revenue growth may mean less demand or more competition.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q2 total revenue growth reported below 7% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 total revenue growth reported at or above 7% year over year.
Earnings call
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for NATL yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth dropping below 10% across major banks
- Watch for changes in FOMC interest rate policy on June 17
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like ALRM and DFIN keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Financials sector momentum should keep lifting NATL and other Financials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If NATL raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-06), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If NATL cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-06), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would weigh on NATL and other Financials names, since the sector usually outperforms when rates stay high.
- If sector bellwethers like ALRM and DFIN start missing or guiding lower, the Financials tailwind helping NATL and other Financials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-061mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 6, 2026, NCR Atleos Corporation (the “Company”) issued a press release setting forth its first quarter 2026 financial results and certain other financial information. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and hereby incorporated by reference. The information in this report (including Exhibit 99.1) is being furnished pursuant to
Earnings preannouncement—
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+11 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.