Reading MZTI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MZTI free→Reading MZTI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MZTI free→NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and management's recent track record has been steady. Earnings quality is mixed, and risk is elevated, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 6% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. The company is not currently profitable, so the valuation leans on sales- and cash-based methods. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $111.61. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $112 the market pays 17× p/e — above the 13× p/e peer median but in line with its own 28× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $121 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 7% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated strong grew net income 66% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=1144).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.80x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1382).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated stable grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 47% for the rest of the cohort, n=379).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.48 → $1.42 (-4.6% / 30d). 0 raised, 4 cut, 5 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 40% of analysts rate Buy.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$117.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$298.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,325.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show how well the company is doing.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows revenue growth or better profit numbers.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows more drops in revenue or profit.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for MZTI yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 4, 2026, The Marzetti Company issued a press release announcing its results for the three and nine months ended March 31, 2026. The press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Packaged Foods & Meats.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
MZTI The Marzetti Company | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | fair | elevated |
MDLZ Mondelez International | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 39 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
HSY Hershey Company (The) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
KHC Kraft Heinz | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
TSN Tyson Foods | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | fair | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on completing strategic acquisitions to drive growth and expand market presence.
Ensure effective capital allocation to support strategic initiatives and financial stability.
Enhance operational efficiency through cost savings programs and process improvements.
Why it matters: If SG&A costs rise too fast, it may hurt profits. This indicates operational efficiency issues.
Confirms:SG&A expenses increase more than 5% while sales growth is less than 1% in Q4.
Disproves:SG&A expenses increase less than 5% while sales growth exceeds 1% in Q4.
Why it matters: A further drop in revenue would show ongoing struggles despite recent acquisitions.
Confirms:Q3 revenue declines further from $453.37M reported in Q2.
Disproves:Q3 revenue stabilizes or grows compared to $453.37M.
Why it matters: Retail sales growth will show if new products and acquisitions boost demand. This is key for future revenue.
Confirms:Retail net sales grow year over year by more than 1% in Q4.
Disproves:Retail net sales decline year over year or grow less than 1% in Q4.
Why it matters: Higher gross margins will show if cost-saving steps work. This could help make more money.
Confirms:Gross margin improves by more than 50 basis points in Q4.
Disproves:Gross margin declines or remains flat in Q4.
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant As previously reported, on March 4, 2026, The Marzetti Company (the “Company”) entered into a First Amendment to its Credit Agreement dated March 6, 2024 (the “First Amendment”), with The Huntington National Bank and Bank of America, N.A. as Co-Syndication Agents, JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. as Administrative Agent, and the other lenders named therein. The First Amendment provided f…
Other Events On May 1, 2026, the Company announced that it had completed the Acquisition. The Company included information about the closing of the Acquisition in a press release furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. 2