Reading MTDR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MTDR free→Reading MTDR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MTDR free→NYSEEnergyOil & Gas E&pSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, while earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, but risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair. It is important to watch for any guidance cuts, as that could signal a credibility hit for MTDR. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $54.05. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $54 MTDR trades at 10× p/e, below its 13× p/e peer median. Our $52 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Analysts: $59–$79. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 5% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about -13%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Energy names rated neutral grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1255).
Over the trailing year it converted 4.49x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Energy names rated robust grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 35% for the rest of the cohort, n=602).
Most sensitive to the US dollar and the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.75 → $2.11 (+20.9% / 30d). 7 raised, 9 cut, 18 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 3 maintained. 79% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 37.9% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$193.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$445.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,876.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Company momentum rose by 16.7 points (from 33.3 to 50.0).
Confidence changed from 'high' to 'medium'.
Valuation changed. It rose from "full" to "fair." Risk fell. The sector backdrop remained a headwind.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Keeping dividends shows financial health. It also shows a commitment to shareholders.
Confirms:Dividends are paid on time without cuts for two quarters.
Disproves:Dividends are cut or delayed.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for MTDR yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. Attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 is a press release (the “Press Release”) issued by Matador Resources Company (the “Company”) on May 6, 2026 , announcing its financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026 and updating full year 2026 production guidance. The Press Release is incorporated by reference into this Item 2.02, and the foregoing description of the Press Release is qualified in its entirety by reference to this exhibit. The in…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$59.00 – $79.00 (median $73.00) · 9 analysts · as of 2026-05-27
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Oil & Gas Exploration & Production.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
MTDR Matador Resources | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | full | elevated |
COP ConocoPhillips | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
EOG EOG Resources | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 95 of 100 | full | moderate |
OXY Occidental Petroleum | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 87 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
FANG Diamondback Energy | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 51 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Energy names rated stable grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 45% for the rest of the cohort, n=249).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Matador aims to increase its production guidance estimates for the full year 2026.
Matador is committed to maintaining its dividend payments to shareholders.
Matador is undergoing an executive leadership transition with internal promotions.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show financial health and how well the company operates.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows revenue growth exceeding 5% year over year.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows revenue drop or fails to meet analyst expectations.
Why it matters: New production guidance will show if the company can boost output. This is key for growth.
Confirms:Production guidance for 2026 is higher than before.
Disproves:Production guidance for 2026 stays the same or is lower.
Chief Financial Officer (Mr. Calvert), Chief Operating Officer (Mr. Stetson) — Christopher P. Calvert, Glenn W. Stetson: Internal promotions of key executives within the company.