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Motorola SolutionsNYSEInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-06-12
Intact
$412.25+0.46%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral. Management's recent track record has been steady, and risk is moderate. The sector backdrop is a tailwind, with MSI positioned above typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 11% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. The analysis is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Information Technology
- Industry
- Communication Equipment
- Market cap
- $68.48B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1994-03-28
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-30
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $412.25. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$464.51consensus
Range $369.07 – $561.63
vs price: -11% below
Method agreement — · 8 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$783.20consensus
Range $628.28 – $929.71
vs price: -47% below
Method agreement — · 6 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peershigh confidence
At $412 MSI trades at 29× p/e, below its 40× p/e peer median. Our $465 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $470–$530. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
29.2x
peer 39.6x · own history 28.6x
Premium
0.7x peer
1.0x its own history
Growth the price needs
-11%
our forecast 9%
Our fair value
$464.51
range $346.76 – $561.63
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is in the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fairfair12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 11% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 9%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 68% for the rest of the cohort, n=3704).
63rd pctl · Information Technology
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.33x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2831).
33rd pctl · Information Technology
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
stableEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Neutral13 analysts, 86% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $3.86 → $3.85 (-0.2% / 30d). 5 raised, 5 cut, 13 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 86% of analysts rate Buy.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: information technology is in growth, with decelerating (~1.0 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): tailwind.Secular epoch: Growth by revenue growth · theme AI/accelerated-compute.tailwind
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- weak
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$87.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$202.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,545.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 7d
Watch for Q2 revenue growth guidance of at least 8.5%
Why it matters: This guidance confirms strong demand and supports the company's goal to reach $12.8 billion in revenue for 2026.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth guidance is confirmed at 8.5% or higher compared to Q2 2025.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth guidance is lowered below 6% compared to Q2 2025.
Earnings call
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for MSI yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth in Information Technology to fall below the median.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for MSI and other Tech names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like CSCO, LITE, and HPE keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Tech sector momentum should keep lifting MSI and other Tech names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
Downside triggers
- If MSI reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising (RAISED as of 2026-05-07), that's the worst kind of move: a credibility hit on top of the lower number. Stocks usually get punished disproportionately for this.
- If sector bellwethers like CSCO, LITE, and HPE start missing or guiding lower, the Tech tailwind helping MSI and other Tech names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits MSI and other Tech names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-071mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition” and Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”) nor shall they be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing. On May 7, 2026 Motorola Solutions, Inc. issued a press release announcing, among…
Earnings preannouncementnegative
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-3.7 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.