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MSGS
Madison Square Garden Sports Corp.NYSECommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-06-12
Watch· this month
$384.68-2.29%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been steady, and it has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with MSGS trading below typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 25% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This analysis is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Communication Services
- Industry
- Entertainment
- Market cap
- $9.48B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2015-11-05
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-12
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $384.68. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfull
$307.14consensus
Range $201.53 – $412.76
vs price: +25% above
Method agreement — · 2 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearexpensive
$145.01consensus
Range $145.01 – $145.01
vs price: +165% above
Method agreement — · 1 method
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Optionality premiumlow confidence
At $385, MSGS's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 6× p/s (4.0× the 1× p/s peer median, and 1.0× even its own history). At a normal multiple the price implies ~25% near-term growth vs our ~-2% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $308 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Analysts: $388–$477. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/S)
5.7x
peer 1.4x · own history 5.8x
Premium
4.0x peer
1.0x its own history
Growth the price needs
25%
our forecast -2%
Our fair value
$307.96
range $202.06 – $413.85
Analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fullfair — but weakening12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 25% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about -2%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Communication Services names rated neutral grew net income 46% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=902).
49th pctl · Communication Services
Earnings quality
loss makingOver the trailing year it converted -2.45x of net income into operating cash flow.
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
Management & capital allocation
stable1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Communication Services names rated stable grew net income 66% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=208).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullishEPS revised +144.5% / 30d, n=3for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $-0.89 → $0.40 (+144.5% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 3 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 5 maintained. 50% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
6 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 19.9% above current price.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: communication services is in declining, with may be transitioning (~0.2 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: weak
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Margin discipline
- weak
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- strong
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$94.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$192.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,008.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 14d
Watch for dividend announcement at $7 per share.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows financial strength. It also shows care for shareholders.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:The company confirms the $7 dividend per share in the next earnings call.
Disproves:The company lowers the dividend below $7 per share. This shows financial trouble.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for MSGS yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth cooling below 10% YoY
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for MSGS and other Communication Services names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like NFLX, DIS, and WBD keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Communication Services sector momentum should keep lifting MSGS and other Communication Services names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
Downside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like NFLX, DIS, and WBD start missing or guiding lower, the Communication Services tailwind helping MSGS and other Communication Services names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits MSGS and other Communication Services names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
- If MSGS misses again next quarter like this past one (a very large miss off a near-zero prior-year base on the 2026-03-31 print), expect continued pressure. The Street usually keeps walking estimates down after consecutive misses.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-041mo agoItem 5.02
Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer — Paul DiCicco: The company appointed an experienced CFO from another organization.
Executive changepositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-3.7 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.