Reading MSCI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MSCI free→
MSCI
MSCI Inc.NYSEFinancialsFinancial Data & Stock ExchangesSnapshot 2026-06-12
Intact
$599.12+0.81%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may affect MSCI's performance. Compared with sector peers, it trades above typical levels, indicating it looks expensive. Peer multiples imply a price about 129% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. This analysis is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Financials
- Industry
- Financial Data & Stock Exchanges
- Market cap
- $43.48B
- Employees
- 6,268
- IPO date
- 2007-07-31
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-28
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $599.12. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$269.68consensus
Range $261.41 – $406.82
vs price: +122% above
Method agreement — · 6 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearexpensive
$407.91consensus
Range $407.46 – $705.21
vs price: +47% above
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearfull
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Durable premiumlow confidence
At $599 the market pays 34× p/e — above the 15× p/e peer median but in line with its own 39× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $262 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
33.6x
peer 14.6x · own history 39.3x
Premium
2.3x peer
0.9x its own history
Growth the price needs
128%
our forecast 23%
Our fair value
$262.39
range $256.06 – $404.15
WhyPeer anchor understates a real premium
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiverich12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 128% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 23%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
High fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=889): about 49% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 85% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
56th pctl · Financials
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.21x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=4725).
48th pctl · Financials
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
Management & capital allocation
Not enough signal yet.
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullish13 analysts, 88% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $4.85 → $4.86 (+0.3% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 13 covering analysts.
Rating actions
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 0 maintained. 88% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 18.9% above current price.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: financials is in growth, with decelerating (~3.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- weak
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$106.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$250.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,807.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 14d
Watch for Q2 recurring subscription revenue growth below 8%
Why it matters: A slowdown in subscription revenue growth may show less demand for MSCI's services.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q2 subscription revenue growth was below 8%.
Disproves:Q2 subscription revenue growth was above 8%.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for MSCI yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth dropping below 10% across major banks
- Watch for changes in FOMC interest rate policy on June 17
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like SPGI, CME, and ICE keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Financials sector momentum should keep lifting MSCI and other Financials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If MSCI raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-21), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If MSCI cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-21), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would weigh on MSCI and other Financials names, since the sector usually outperforms when rates stay high.
- If sector bellwethers like SPGI, CME, and ICE start missing or guiding lower, the Financials tailwind helping MSCI and other Financials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-211mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 21, 2026 , MSCI Inc. (the “Registrant”) released financial information with respect to its first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release containing this information is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K (the “Report”). The Registrant’s press release contains certain non-GAAP financial measures. Definitions of each non-GAAP financial measure, additional information about why management believes…
Earnings preannouncementneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+6.9 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.