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Marsh McLennanNYSEFinancialsInsurance BrokersSnapshot 2026-06-12
Watch· this month
$168.68+0.32%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may affect MRSH's performance compared to its peers, where it trades above typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 21% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, priced roughly in line with peer multiples. Key factors to watch include potential guidance cuts and the performance of sector bellwethers, as these could significantly impact MRSH's outlook. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Financials
- Industry
- Insurance Brokers
- Market cap
- $80.94B
- Employees
- 95,000
- IPO date
- 1994-05-13
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-16
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $168.68. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfull
$140.03consensus
Range $125.17 – $176.41
vs price: +20% above
Method agreement — · 8 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$220.78consensus
Range $199.34 – $237.94
vs price: -24% below
Method agreement — · 6 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Aligned with peerslow confidence
At $169 MRSH trades at 18× p/e, in line with its 15× p/e peer median. Our $140 fair value reflects that, low confidence. Analysts: $180–$225. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
17.7x
peer 14.6x · own history 19.3x
Premium
1.2x peer
0.9x its own history
Growth the price needs
20%
our forecast —
Our fair value
$140.03
range $121.51 – $173.61
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fullfair12-month view
What's priced in
The market is pricing in roughly 20% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Compared to peers
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
41st pctl · Financials
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.33x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=4725).
57th pctl · Financials
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
volatile3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Bearish0 positive, 2 negative material events / 30dfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $2.91 → $2.90 (-0.3% / 30d). 2 raised, 15 cut, 21 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 39% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
3 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 15.3% above current price.
Material events
0 positive, 2 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: is in (~3.2 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strongProvisional
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- weak
Met or beat guidance 50% of the last 2 guided quarters · -16.0% avg surprise
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$105.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$215.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,703.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 7d
Watch for Q2 operating income decline greater than 12%
Why it matters: A big drop in operating income could show problems with cost management.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q2 operating income falls more than 12% from Q1.
Disproves:Q2 operating income stays the same or grows from Q1.
Earnings call
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for MRSH yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth dropping below 10% across major banks
- Watch for changes in FOMC interest rate policy on June 17
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like AON, AJG, and WTW keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Financials sector momentum should keep lifting MRSH and other Financials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If MRSH raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-16), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If MRSH cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-16), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would weigh on MRSH and other Financials names, since the sector usually outperforms when rates stay high.
- If sector bellwethers like AON, AJG, and WTW start missing or guiding lower, the Financials tailwind helping MRSH and other Financials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-049d agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement On June 2, 2026, Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. (the “Company”) and certain of its domestic and foreign subsidiaries entered into a new Amended and Restated 5 Year Credit Agreement, dated as of June 2, 2026, among the Company, as borrower, the designated subsidiaries party thereto as borrowers, Citibank, N.A., as administrative agent, and the lenders from time to time party thereto (the “Credit Agreement”). The Credit Agreement provides for a multi…
Capital allocationneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+7.3 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.