Reading MPWR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MPWR free→Reading MPWR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MPWR free→NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong. Earnings quality is fragile, and management's track record is volatile. The company has a capital-unfriendly stance. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a tailwind. Compared with sector peers, it is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 42% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $1577.32. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $1,577 MPWR trades at 27× p/s — 2.3× the 12× p/s peer median, and above its own 19× history. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $1,107 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $1,500–$2,000. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 43% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 16%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=889): about 49% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 85% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated strong grew net income 73% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.22x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated fragile grew net income 46% of the time over the next year (vs 65% for the rest of the cohort, n=2129).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $5.15 → $5.86 (+13.7% / 30d). 13 raised, 0 cut, 15 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 88% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$227.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$471.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,245.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This will provide insights into MPS's performance and market conditions.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows big revenue growth or better margins.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows falling revenue or margins.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for MPWR yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Other Events. On June 12, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing the second quarter cash dividend of $2.00 per share to all stockholders of record as of the close of business on June 30, 2026. The dividend will be paid to stockholders on July 15, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$1500.00 – $2000.00 (median $1750.00) · 6 analysts · as of 2026-05-01
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Semiconductors.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
MPWR Monolithic Power Systems | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 68 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 88 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. | — | — | moderate |
AVGO Broadcom | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 75 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
MU Micron Technology | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Information Technology names rated volatile grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=793).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Aim to achieve revenue in the range of $890 million to $910 million for Q2 2026.
Continue to maintain GAAP gross margin within the range of 55.1% to 55.7% for Q2 2026.
Manage non-GAAP operating expenses within the range of $167 million to $171 million for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: This guidance shows if MPS can keep its growth momentum. Meeting this target signals strong demand.
Confirms:Q2 revenue reported within the range of $890 million to $910 million.
Disproves:Q2 revenue reported below $890 million.
Why it matters: Strong growth in this segment shows MPS's competitive edge in power solutions. It supports overall revenue growth.
Confirms:Communications revenue was up more than 30% from last year.
Disproves:Communications revenue was flat or down from last year.
Why it matters: Higher expenses could hurt profits. Keeping costs controlled is key for MPS's growth strategy.
Confirms:Q2 non-GAAP operating costs were under $167 million.
Disproves:Q2 non-GAAP operating costs were over $171 million.
Why it matters: Higher expenses may show problems and hurt profits.
Confirms:Operating costs are under $219.1 million.
Disproves:Operating costs are above $225.1 million.
Why it matters: Maintaining this margin range shows MPS can manage costs while growing revenue. A drop may signal issues.
Confirms:GAAP gross margin reported within 55.1%-55.7%.
Disproves:GAAP gross margin reported below 55.1%.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto are being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “1934 Act”), nor shall they be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission under the 1934 Act or the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Non-Reliance on Previously Issued Financial Statements or a Related Audit Report or Completed Interim Review On February 26, 2026, the Audit Committee of the Board of Directors of Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. (the “Company”), after discussion with senior management, determined that the Company’s previously issued audited consolidated financial statements included in its annual report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2024, filed on March 3, 2025, and each of the Company’s…
Chief Financial Officer — Bernie Blegen: Bernie Blegen is retiring from his position as CFO with an interim successor appointed.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 5, 2026, Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release (the “Press Release”) regarding its financial results for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. The Press Release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated by reference herein. Attached hereto as Exhibit 99.2 and incorporated by reference herein is financial information and commentary regarding results of the quarter and year ended Dece…