Reading MOH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MOH free→Reading MOH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MOH free→NYSEHealth CareHealthcare PlansSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality and management's track record are neutral. The company has a capital-unfriendly stance, and risk is elevated, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 49% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, particularly how bellwethers like UNH, CVS, and ELV perform. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $200.28. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $200 MOH trades at 29× p/e — 1.5× the 19× p/e peer median, and above its own 19× history. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $136 fair value is medium-confidence here. Analysts: $129–$310. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 47% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 7%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.90x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=2269).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, the broad stock market, Fed net liquidity.
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=842).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.49 → $1.45 (-2.4% / 30d). 7 raised, 8 cut, 17 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 4 maintained. 22% of analysts rate Buy.
4 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 6.9% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$188.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$441.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,996.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Insights from this event can clarify Molina's long-term plans and financial targets. It may affect investor sentiment.
Confirms one read:Molina shares good news on plans and financial goals during the conference.
Confirms the other:Molina shares bad news or unclear plans during the conference.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Advances: Reaffirm full-year 2026 premium revenue guidance
Winning the contract supports premium revenue growth.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Regulation FD Disclosure. As previously announced, Molina Healthcare, Inc. (the “Company”) will host its Investor Day Conference on May 8, 2026, beginning at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time. At the event, the Company will provide various updates regarding its business, including on its long-term financial targets and strategic and operational plans. A copy of the Investor Day presentation materials is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference. A live webcast of the Company’s…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$129.00 – $310.00 (median $170.00) · 16 analysts · as of 2026-06-08
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Managed Health Care.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
MOH Molina Healthcare | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 56 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
UNH UnitedHealth Group | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 72 of 100 | fair | moderate |
ELV Elevance Health | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
HUM Humana | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 63 of 100 | full | elevated |
CNC Centene Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 35 of 100 | full | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Molina Healthcare reaffirms its full-year 2026 premium revenue guidance of approximately $42 billion.
Molina Healthcare reaffirms its full-year 2026 adjusted earnings guidance of at least $5.00 per diluted share.
Molina Healthcare continues to focus on managing medical costs to improve margins.
Why it matters: Reaffirming this guidance shows Molina's confidence in future revenue. It impacts investor trust.
Confirms:Molina says premium revenue guidance stays the same in the next earnings report.
Disproves:Molina lowers premium revenue guidance in the next earnings report.
Why it matters: This guidance shows Molina believes future earnings will improve. It changes how the market sees them.
Confirms:Molina says adjusted earnings guidance stays the same in the next earnings report.
Disproves:Molina cuts its earnings guidance for the next report.
Why it matters: A better MCR means better cost management. This leads to more efficient operations.
Confirms:MCR for Q2 2026 improves to below 91.1%.
Disproves:MCR for Q2 2026 worsens above 91.1%.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 22, 2026, Molina Healthcare, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release reporting its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026 and reaffirming the Company’s full-year 2026 premium revenue and adjusted earnings guidance. The full text of the press release is included as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. The information contained in the Company’s website cited in the press release is not part of this report. Note: The infor…
Director: Annual board election of directors.