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MNST
Monster BeverageNASDAQConsumer StaplesBeverages - Non-alcoholicSnapshot 2026-06-12
Intact
$92.83+0.87%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been steady, and it has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop is a headwind, indicating challenges in the broader market. Peer multiples imply a price about 141% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. This assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Consumer Staples
- Industry
- Beverages - Non-alcoholic
- Market cap
- $90.01B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1996-05-10
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-06
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $92.83. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$38.57consensus
Range $32.77 – $52.45
vs price: +141% above
Method agreement — · 8 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearexpensive
$65.81consensus
Range $37.22 – $117.19
vs price: +41% above
Method agreement — · 6 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearfair
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Durable premiumlow confidence
At $93 the market pays 45× p/e — above the 18× p/e peer median but in line with its own 42× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $39 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $86–$103. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
44.6x
peer 17.6x · own history 42.3x
Premium
2.5x peer
1.1x its own history
Growth the price needs
141%
our forecast 18%
Our fair value
$38.59
range $32.77 – $52.80
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiverich12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 141% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 18%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Elevated fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated strong grew net income 66% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=1144).
74th pctl · Consumer Staples
Earnings quality
fragileOver the trailing year it converted 1.08x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated fragile grew net income 51% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1037).
21st pctl · Consumer Staples
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullish6 analysts, 58% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.57 → $0.58 (+1.3% / 30d). 4 raised, 1 cut, 6 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 58% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 10.1% above current price.
Material events
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklyManagement scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- strong
Met or beat guidance 67% of the last 3 guided quarters · -15.1% avg surprise
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$90.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$237.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,770.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 7d
Watch for Q2 net sales growth below 25%
Why it matters: A slowdown in sales growth could signal weakening demand in the energy drink market.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q2 net sales growth comes in below 25% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 net sales growth exceeds 25% year over year.
Earnings call
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for MNST yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for Consumer Price Index data on June 10
- Watch for Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report on June 17
- Watch for FOMC decision on June 17
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If MNST raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-02-26), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for MNST and other Consumer Staples names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If MNST beats again next quarter like it did this past one (a solid beat of +10% on the 2026-03-31 print), the momentum tends to extend, with Street estimates ratcheting up and the stock typically following.
Downside triggers
- If MNST cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-02-26), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- Consumer Staples has been in a strong run; if sector bellwethers like KO, PEP, and KDP start showing cracks (missed prints, soft guidance), MNST and other Consumer Staples names could lose the sector tailwind.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-049d agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On June 1, 2026, Mark J. Hall, currently a director on the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Monster Beverage Corporation (the “Company”), provided notice to the Board and management of the Company of his intention to resign as a director on the Board, effective as of August 1, 2026, and as an employee of Monster Energy US LLC, a subsidiary of th…
Executive changeneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+1.3 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.